We are backing Stade Brest on the road in this matchup for situational reasons. Not only have they won three straight matches and two of their last three on the road, Brest can also crack into the Top 3 with a win today. They currently sit in 9th place, tied with six other teams, two of whom play today.
Just one point from Brest would almost guarantee them a spot in the next round, and three would do wonders in setting them up to finish in the Top 8. Arsenal and Inter Milan are both at 13 points as well and have much easier matches at hand. I see Stade Brest using this as motivation to go out and get three points of their own on the road against a team that has very little to play for.
Shakhtar Donetsk sits in 28th place on the table. They will need at least 4 points in their last two games to even have a shot at moving on, and will likely need two wins and a miracle. At home, I don't see them putting up much of a fight, and for this price I'll back Stade Brest to get the job done.
Don't be afraid of the juice, and yes, I am the No Fun Police today, but I do not see very many fireworks in France this afternoon.
John Stones is returning to the Manchester City backline, and Reuben Dias played all 90 minutes this weekend. The defense is back for Manchester City, and with both teams needing points badly, I see this one being a hard fought, defensive match.
Sure, City have been scoring at will. They put up 6 on the road this weekend, and have scored 2 or more in five straight matches. However in that time, they have not played a high caliber team like PSG, and especially not on the road. The last time they did that, they lost 2-1 to Aston Villa on the road.
Now, PSG knows Manchester City has studs returning to the lineup and I expect them to be conservative to counter the attack. Both teams have been "cruising down easy street" as my man, Colby likes to say, and now they're getting into "toughville".
Neither team has seen a quality opponent in a while. Both absolutely need points in this situation, likely three rather than one. And I expect both to have a bit of a wake up call, especially in the first half. Ultimately, I see this game being a possessions battle rather than two teams actually trying to score.
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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