UEFA Champions League Picks and Predictions: Round of 16 Begins
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Mon Mar 09, 2026, 10:30 pm ET
Read Time: 8 minutes
UEFA
The UEFA Champions League begins the Round of 16 on Tuesday with the first leg of each match. We have four slated for Tuesday with four more on Wednesday, with the second leg of each contest being next week. Will anyone break out to an early aggregate lead? Let's find out how our soccer experts are wagering on these matches with our favorite UCL picks for the week!
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks, and be sure to check out tons of picks in different soccer leagues across the world.
UEFA Champions League Picks and Predictions – March 10
Can the Liverpool back line hold strong in Turkey this Tuesday?
Galatasaray vs. Liverpool UEFA Champions League Picks
Best Bet: Galatasaray/Liverpool Under 3.25 (-115) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
These two teams met already in the League Phase portion of the competition in Turkey. In that match, the hosts were victorious, winning 1-0 with a penalty kick being the difference in the match. We only saw four shots on target for each team as Liverpool were pressing most of the contest, but the Turkish defense held strong, and I see them doing so again.
Liverpool knows they will have a second leg at home to try and win on aggregate score, so I could see them being a little extra cautious for this first leg. That leads me to believe we see a low scoring contest on Tuesday.
Prediction: 1-1 Draw (+725)
Atalanta vs. Bayern Munich UEFA Champions League Picks
Bayern is a heavy favorite in this match and for good reason. Atalanta squeaked by Borussia Dortmund in the Knockout Round, and now face another German opponent. I think Munich will be too much to handle, but I also don't see any value on either side. If you forced my hand, a Bayern Munich ML/Over 1.5 goals at (-118) would probably be the move.
Atlético Madrid vs. Tottenham UEFA Champions League Picks
Best Bet: Atlético Madrid Team Total Over 2 (+106) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Atlético are a massive home favorite against Tottenham who are floundering. Plus, the Spurs should focus more on avoiding relegation in the English Premier League. Going into Spain and trying to contain this team will be too much to handle. For plus money and push potential, I see Atlético having a field day at home and jumping out to a big aggregate lead.
You can take this up to 2.5 for (+178) if you'd like, as we still need three goals to cash our wager, but I refuse to get greedy and I'll live with a push if it happens.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid Wins 3-0 (+1000)
Newcastle United vs. Barcelona UEFA Champions League Picks
Lamine Yamal and Barcelona face Newcastle United for the second time in the UCL
Best Bet: Barcelona -0.25 (-101) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
We saw these clubs meet in League Phase at St. James' Park, where Barcelona was victorious, winning 2-1. I expect something similar to happen and will be backing Barcelona to win the match, but we are splitting our unit by betting the -0.25. We have Barcelona -0.5, and Barcelona Draw No Bet, both for a half unit priced at -101. Sure, we could push and lose, but I'll take some extra cushion in case this ends in a draw.
Newcastle's back line is one of the best in England, but they allowed Barcelona to control 64% of possession and conceded 19 total shots in the previous meeting. The Spanish attack should be out in full force, looking to go home with an aggregate lead next week.
Prediction: Barcelona Wins 3-1 (+1300)
UEFA Champions League Picks and Predictions – March 11
Arsenal and Bayer Leverkusen meet in Germany for the first leg of the UCL Round of 16
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Arsenal UEFA Champions League Picks
Best Bet: Leverkusen/Arsenal Under 2.5 (-108) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I have gone on and on all year long about how good this Gunners' back line is, and I expect to see it on Wednesday in Germany. However, the Leverkusen back line can hold their own, and I don't think they let this get out of hand at home. This team only netted 15 goals in their 10 UCL matches so far, but they've only allowed 14 as well.
They do NOT want to get into an offensive challenge against Arsenal. They will lose. Instead, I see Leverkusen playing as conservative as possible, hoping to get through two legs without giving up a goal. Forcing extra time and penalty kicks next week in London will be a priority, so I don't expect them to be very aggressive on offense.
Prediction: Arsenal Wins 1-0 (+575)
Bodo/Glimt vs. Sporting CP UEFA Champions League Picks
Both Cinderella's of the UCL meet in Norway for this Round of 16 contest, and I certainly lean with the hosts. However, I would prefer to back them on the double chance line, which is insanely juicy. As of the time of this writing, March 9 at 10:02 p.m. eastern, I do not have a bet in this match.
However, I might play Bodo/Glimt on the moneyline, or back them on the draw no bet line at (-108). Follow my Twitter @Shaggy_Bets to know exactly how I wager on this match.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Chelsea UEFA Champions League Picks
Best Bet: PSG ML/Over 1.5 (+131) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I don't hate taking this total up to 2.5 for +178 if you want some more bang for your buck, because I expect some fireworks in this contest. Chelsea will throw men forward, trying to build an aggregate lead before heading to Stamford Bridge next week, but their aggression on the road might lead to their downfall.
Paris Saint-Germain's team total over 1.5 (-134) could also be a look in this match, as we will need at least two goals from them anyways to cash our bet. However, I do trust the back line to hold Chelsea to one goal at most. The Blues got the best of PSG in the FIFA Club World Cup final in June, beating them 3-0 after the French ran through the rest of the competition. Look for the hosts to play with an extra chip on their shoulder, as this is their first shot at revenge.
Prediction: PSG Wins 3-1 (+1200)
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City UEFA Champions League Picks
Kylian Mbappe leads Real Madrid against Manchester City
Best Bet: Real Madrid +0.5 (-122) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Perhaps the most anticipated match of the Round of 16, two giants from their domestic leagues meet at the Bernabéu. Earlier this season, they met in the League Phase part of the UCL, and City was able to earn a 2-1 win on the road in Spain. In that match, Real Madrid jumped out to a 1-0 lead just 28 minutes into the match, but watched it dwindle before halftime thanks to a goal from Nico O'Reilly in the 35′ and an Erling Haaland penalty kick in the 43′. Then the two played to a scoreless second half.
Real Madrid were only able to net a single shot on target despite earning over 52% of possession. Will things be different a second time around? One could hope, but I do expect the Spanish side to bring maximum effort in order to secure at least a draw at home.
Prediction: 1-1 Draw (+625)
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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