Manchester City vs. Newcastle Picks and Predictions: Carabao Cup Semis

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Published: Wed Feb 04, 2026, 9:58 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Bernardo Silva and Manchester City have a crucial match at home against Brentford this Saturday - EPL Picks

soccer

Yesterday, Arsenal got the best of Chelsea and punched their ticket to the Carabao Cup Final, but they still need an opponent. Today, in the other semifinal in Manchester, we get to figure out who they face, as Manchester City hosts Newcastle United in the second leg of their contest. Now, the hosts are already up 2-0 on aggregate score and have home field advantage this afternoon. Will the Magpies be able to pull off a miraculous upset? Let's get into our favorite picks and find out.

Best Bet: Manchester City/Newcastle Under 3 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks, for tons of picks in different soccer leagues across the world.

Manchester City vs. Newcastle United Carabao Cup Betting Insights

Nick Woltemade and Newcastle have nothing else to lose today at Etihad Stadium - Newcastle Manchester City Picks

Nick Woltemade and Newcastle have nothing else to lose today at Etihad Stadium

First things first, let's look at how these teams have played each other this year. So far, the clubs have met twice this competition season, with both contests happening at St. James' Park. In late November, the Magpies hosted City in their first English Premier League meeting and were able to earn three points at home. Newcastle was victorious, winning 2-1 with all three goals coming in a seven minute span of the match.

However, in early January, they met at St. James' Park again in the first leg of this Carabao Cup Semifinal, and we all know how that ended up. City blanked their hosts 2-0. Now they are back at home with an aggregate lead, and although they have a tough matchup on Sunday on the road against Liverpool, I've got to think they can at least hold on to advance to the final match.

Matchup Information – Manchester City vs. Newcastle United – February 4

  • Venue & Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
  • Date: Wednesday, February 4, 2026
  • Kick Off: 3:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: Paramount+

Manchester City vs. Newcastle United Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook as of February 4, 2026, at 9:20 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus and 50 slot spins., and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.

Moneyline

  • Manchester City -136
  • Draw +290
  • Newcastle United +295

Spread

  • Manchester City -1 (+133)
  • Newcastle United +1 (-164)

Total

  • Over 3 (-117)
  • Under 3 (-110)

Manchester City vs. Newcastle United Carabao Cup Picks

Rayan Cherki has been scoring a lot recently for Manchester City - Newcastle Manchester City Picks

Rayan Cherki has been scoring a lot recently for Manchester City

Best Bet: Manchester City/Newcastle Under 3 (-136) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

I don't hate taking Newcastle United on the double chance line for plus money to be honest with you. However, we know how good City is, especially at home, and they might not want to leave anything up to chance. While they could be saving some legs for Sunday's trip to Anfield, the hosts will certainly do everything in their power to secure a spot in the title. But keep in mind, losing by one goal in today's match would still get them there.

All the cards are in City's hands, and they can choose from a multitude of options on how they want to approach this specific match. No matter who takes the field for Pep Guardiola's squad, I have to imagine the back line will be able to withstand any attack from the Magpies. In their two matches this competition season, City have allowed just seven shots on target to Newcastle.

However, the last time they played at Etihad Stadium, City won 4-0 last February, holding Newcastle to just three total shots and one on frame. Prior to that, in the FA Cup in 2024 at the Etihad, City held them to just two total shots, one on target, and held the ball for over 72% of the match. City will dominate this match today, but I don't think it gets out of hand. By my research, the last time Newcastle beat Manchester City at the Etihad was in October of 2014, and they haven't scored there since 2018.

Prediction: Manchester City Wins 2-0 (+900)

Still Want More Soccer Content?

Here at Betting News, we offer Free Expert Picks for every major sports league. We also host daily streams on our Twitch Channel with our best bets, as well as sweat out games on Playback! Be sure to tune into everything we have going on at our Youtube, TikTok, and X pages as well. Be sure to follow my personal X account as well, @Shaggy_Bets for my full daily card.

Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly

Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER

Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.