Arsenal vs. Chelsea Picks and Predictions: Carabao Cup Semis

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Published: Tue Feb 03, 2026, 10:17 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Declan Rice and Arsenal take on Tottenham on the road this Sunday - Arsenal Tottenham Picks

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The Carabao Cup Semifinals continue this week as we have the second leg of each matchup. Both teams hosting this leg got the job done in the first meeting, so now they try to defend their aggregate lead at home and advance to the Cup Final. First up, we head to Emirates Stadium where Arsenal face Chelsea. Can the Gunners secure their spot in the title match? Or will Chelsea find a way to pull off this upset on the road? Let's find out with our favorite picks.

Best Bet: Arsenal/Chelsea Under 3 (-136) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks, for tons of picks in different soccer leagues across the world.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea Carabao Cup Betting Insights

Martinelli and Arsenal defend their aggregate lead in the Carabao Cup Semifinals today at home - Arsenal Chelsea Picks

Martinelli and Arsenal defend their aggregate lead in the Carabao Cup Semifinals today at home

We had an exciting five goal thriller in the opening leg of this semifinal at Stamford Bridge. Ben White opened the scoring just seven minutes into the match, while Viktor Gyökeres netted another early in the second half. Alejandro Garnacho did his best to keep the Blues a float, adding a goal to bring the lead to one in the 57′, but Martin Zubimendi brought the lead back to two goals in the 71′ minute. Eventually, Garnacho netted a second in the 83′, but then Chelsea simply ran out of time.

The Gunners lead 3-2 on aggregate score going into this match. Now, Chelsea must win this contest in order to simply force overtime. If things are all tied on aggregate after 90 minutes of play, we will see standard overtime, which includes two 15 minute periods of extra time, followed by a penalty kick shootout if necessary to determine a winner. Again, that is if, and only if, Chelsea are able to win this match by one goal in regulation. Do they have it in them? The odds suggest otherwise.

Matchup Information – Arsenal vs. Chelsea – February 3

  • Venue & Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
  • Date: Tuesday, February 3, 2026
  • Kick Off: 3:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: Paramount+

Arsenal vs. Chelsea Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook as of February 3, 2026, at 9:36 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus and 50 slot spins., and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.

Moneyline

  • Arsenal -152
  • Draw +290
  • Chelsea +340

Spread

  • Arsenal -1 (+118)
  • Chelsea +1 (-143)

Total

  • Over 3 (+104)
  • Under 3 (-136)

Arsenal vs. Chelsea Carabao Cup Picks

Pedro Neto and Chelsea need a win on the road just to force extra time against Arsenal - Arsenal Chelsea Picks

Pedro Neto and Chelsea need a win on the road just to force extra time against Arsenal

Best Bet: Arsenal/Chelsea Under 3 (-136) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

The five goal thriller we saw last match was a bit of an anomaly in my eyes. Typically, these teams play tight, low scoring contests. For example, in their last two head to head meetings at Stamford Bridge in the English Premier League, we saw these teams play to a 1-1 draw. Even at Emirates Stadium in March of 2025 during the EPL season, Arsenal took down the Blues by a score of 1-0. Ultimately I see this being a low scoring affair, and paying a little juice for some push potential is fine in my eyes.

The Gunners know what they have to do. All they need is a draw at home and they are in the Carabao Cup Final. Sure, Chelsea is going to make it as difficult as possible, but the Gunners don't travel anywhere this weekend, staying at home to face Sunderland, so they shouldn't be looking ahead to anything. Full focus should be on beating the Blues, (or rather, not losing, since they only need a draw).

As for Chelsea, their motivation should be plenty high, but they know firsthand how difficult it is to win at Emirates Stadium. By my research, the Blues have not won outright on the road against Arsenal since August 22, 2021 in the EPL. And I doubt that changes today with the way the Gunners have been playing all season long.

Prediction: Arsenal Wins 1-0 (+775) or 1-1 Draw (+650)

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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