We are on to the final two days of the Round of 16 matches in the FIFA Club World Cup. So far, four teams have punched their ticket to the Quarterfinals, while four more move on to the bracket today and tomorrow. Congrats to Palmeiras, Chelsea, Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich who are all in the next round. Early this afternoon, Inter Milan battles Fluminense to fill another spot in the bracket.
Will the UCL Runner Ups come to play? Or can this Brazilian side surprise them in the knockout rounds?
Thiago Silva and Fluminense take on Inter Milan today
Inter Milan finished on top of their group. They drew with Monterrey but then beat the Urawa Red Diamonds. Finally they faced River Plate, in what turned out to be a "win or go home" match. The Italians ended up on top, and moved on in first place of the group.
Fluminense came in second place in Group F to Borussia Dortmund. They drew with the Germans to open the tournament, followed by beating Ulsan and drawing with the Mamelodi Sundowns in their final match, where a draw secured their spot in the Round of 16. Fluminense played well when tested against a top European team, but now they face the literal Champions League Runner Ups.
Inter Milan is a highly motivated team. The European teams all had question marks regarding their tenacity in this tournament, but most have come to play. They've brought their A-game to every match, and despite coming off the huge loss in the UCL, the Italians are ready to go.
They handled business when they needed to after drawing with a very good Mexican team in their first match. Monterrey ended up finishing second in the group. The point is, I don't think they underestimate Fluminense like Borussia Dortmund might have.
In their scoreless draw with the Germans, Fluminense won the shooting and corner kick battles easily. They had 14 total attempts, double the amount of Dortmund, putting five of them on target. The Brazilian side also earned seven corner kicks while only conceding three. This afternoon I see them at least putting up a fight and keeping things close.
I've got no problem paying the juiceman here. Fluminense knows they are outmatched, much like were against Dortmund, and Inter Milan is ready to defend. Defense is in their DNA, and despite having the better team on paper, I see them being extra conservative, at least early in this match.
The Italians will respect their opponents, feeling them out before getting too aggressive. The books are already posting an extremely low total, which makes me think both teams may try to play kick around for as long as possible. Regardless, I don't necessarily see the Brazilians finding the back of the net, as all four of their goals this competition came against Ulsan.
Inter Milan's backline will be able to keep a clean sheet and most likely win it in 90 minutes as well. Inter to keep a clean sheet is around +115, and Inter to Win to Nil is priced around (+155) if either of those peak your interest.
On the off chance this ends in a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes, I'll stick with paying the juice on the under.
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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