Group Stage of the FIFA Club World Cup continues to come to a close this afternoon with two more groups finishing up, leaving two more to seal the deal tomorrow. So far, we have four teams into the Round of 16 who have won their group: Palmeiras, Paris Saint-Germain, Benfica, and Flamengo. We also have four teams who finished second to advance: Inter Miami, Botafogo, Bayern Munich, and Chelsea.
Today, Groups E and F wrap up, so let's get into our best bets on the pitch.
River Plate and Inter Milan battle today, both being tied at four points apiece. The Argentine side are up on goal differential, so even if both advance with a draw, the Italians will need a win to jump over their foes. As for the other match, Monterrey still have hope with two points. They'll need a win today over the Urawa Red Diamonds who have been eliminated. The Mexican side would more than likely need a three-goal win if the other two teams tied, leaving them all tied at five points apiece.
Group F Analysis
Fluminense are in control of this group, leading Borussia Dortmund on goal differential by one, while both are tied with four points. The Brazilians face the Mamelodi Sundowns who are just behind the other two with three points following their win against Ulsan. The Sundowns put up a fight against Dortmund, losing 4-3 after taking a one-goal lead 11 minutes into the match.
All teams will be looking for three points in order to put themselves in the best place to advance.
The Sundowns have proven they will not go down without a fight. They held on against Ulsan in their opener, and fought with Dortmund until the final minute, scoring in the 62′ and 90′ after falling behind 4-1. However, I think they play aggressive today.
Now, this total is slightly low. Fluminense only needs one point in order to ensure they advance, but they'll need at least a win to have a chance at topping the group (assuming Dortmund can beat Ulsan). With that in mind, we saw an Ulsan team play this Brazilian side in a 2-2 game until they allowed goals in the 83′ and 90+2′ to lose by two.
The point is, I think the Sundowns are capable of keeping this one tight, and finding the back of the net. Fluminense were down 2-1 after halftime against Ulsan. I expect them to come out more aggressive, looking for a win, which may give the Sundowns a shot at a counter attack.
Scoreless draw incoming! Both of these teams drew against Monterrey and allowed the Urawa Red Diamonds to find the back of the net. The Argentine side control their own destiny with a draw, so I expect them to be conservative against the UCL runner-ups.
As for Inter, they'll try to win the group, but defense is the name of their game. I think River Plate will do whatever it takes to stay on top of this group and not allow the Italians to jump them. If you want to pay a little more juice than we already are, River Plate +0.5 is priced around (-134). I think we see a boring game from both sides, who hope a draw will be enough to move on.
I thought about taking their team total over 1.5 for the same price, but I'll just stick with them winning. They face an unmotivated Urawa side who has nothing to play for and has allowed five goals in two matches of this tournament.
Monterrey not only needs a win, but needs someone to be victorious as Inter Milan battles River Plate. If the Mexican side wins, and the other two draw, all three will be tied with five points. In that instance, goal differential will come into play. Hypothetically in that scenario, River Plate would still be ahead of Inter Milan, but Monterrey could jump the Italians if they have a big enough victory.
Knowing this, I expect them to be aggressive and earn three points, thus doing all they can to advance to the next round.
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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