Chelsea vs. Manchester City FA Cup Final: May 16, 2026

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Published: Fri May 15, 2026, 10:07 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Savinho has one goal in three matches for City in the FA Cup this year - Chelsea Manchester City Picks

soccer

The Blues and the Citizens meet at Wembley Stadium in London on Saturday morning for the FA Cup Final. Chelsea put together a valiant effort during the English Premier League season, but with two matches remaining, they are looking at finishing anywhere from 9th to 12th on the final table. As for Manchester City, they are two points behind Arsenal and have the nod on goal differential. Surely they are focused on bringing their A-game to the rest of their EPL matches, but I also see them coming to play in this FA Cup Final. Let's check out our soccer expert's favorite picks in this contest.

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Chelsea vs. Manchester City FA Cup Final Betting Insights

Joao Pedro and Chelsea are looking to lift the FA Cup for the first time since 2018 - Chelsea Manchester City Picks

Joao Pedro and Chelsea are looking to lift the FA Cup for the first time since 2018

These teams have already gone head to head twice in the EPL this season, and both matches happened in 2026. Back in January, they met at Etihad Stadium, where the teams played to a 1-1 draw. Each team only had three shots on frame, and City controlled over 57% of possession, but Enzo Fernández was the stoppage time hero, finding the back of the net and securing a tough point on the road.

However, when the two played at Stamford Bridge in April, things were different. Manchester City won that match by a score of 3-0, shutting out their hosts. Again, Chelsea managed just three shots on target, and City dominated the possession and corner kick battles once again. All three goals came in the second half, but City was victorious. Will anything change in this Final?

Matchup Information – Chelsea vs. Manchester City – May 16

  • Venue & Location: Wembley Stadium (London, England)
  • Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026
  • Kick Off: 10:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: ESPN2

Chelsea vs. Manchester City Betting Odds

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Moneyline

  • Chelsea +350
  • Draw +285
  • Manchester City -157

Spread

  • Chelsea +0.5 (+117)
  • Manchester City -0.5 (-150)

Total

  • Over 3 (+115)
  • Under 3 (-140)
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Chelsea vs. Manchester City FA Cup Final Picks and Predictions

Rayan Cherki has emerged as a key piece of City's offensive success this season - Chelsea Manchester City Picks

Rayan Cherki has emerged as a key piece of City's offensive success this season

Best Bet: Chelsea/Manchester City Under 2.5 (+125) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

If you want something that might be "safer" but still plus money, I do not hate Manchester City ML paired with under 4.5 for +115. You could even do 3.5 for +163 if that's more enticing. However, I see this being a very low scoring game. The Blues have totaled just six shots on frame and six corner kicks in two matches against Manchester City. This gives me very little faith in their offense getting the job done.

Plus, history is on our side. Typically, Title Matches and Cup Finals are much more defensive than any other match. We see this illustrated by recent results. Manchester City are playing in their fourth straight FA Cup Final. After winning in 2023, they have now lost the last two matches. However, we have seen less than 2.5 goals in three of the last five, plus the last six have either pushed or stayed under a flat three. Feel free to pay the -140 on the under 3 if you're more comfortable doing that, but keep in mind, our wager will be settled after 90 minutes. A 1-1 draw would still cash our bet, even if someone scores in extra time.

Chelsea have not won the FA Cup since 2018, losing three straight in 2020, 2021, and 2022. They also have not beaten Manchester City straight up in 15 head to head matches. Their last win came against City in the UEFA Champions League in 2021. I do not see anything changing, and I see City lifting the FA Cup after a low scoring victory on Saturday.

Prediction: Manchester City Wins 2-0 (+800)

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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