Chelsea vs. Arsenal Picks and Predictions: Carabao Cup Semifinals

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Published: Wed Jan 14, 2026, 9:51 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Joao Pedro and Chelsea have their EPL home opener this weekend at Stamford Bridge - Expert Soccer Picks

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Wednesday gives us another matchup in the Carabao Cup Semifinals. Yesterday, Manchester City took down Newcastle United at St. James' Park to go up 2-0 on aggregate heading into the second leg. But today, two of the best in the English Premier League battle it out in their first leg of the Carabao Cup Semifinals. We head to Stamford Bridge, as Chelsea host Arsenal, who sit alone on top of the EPL table. Can the Blues find a way to win at home before heading to Emirates Stadium for the second leg? Let's get into our favorite picks and find out.

Best Bet: Chelsea/Arsenal 1H Draw (+115) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

Keep reading for analysis and two more long shot picks!

Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks, for tons of picks in different soccer leagues across the world.

Chelsea vs. Arsenal Carabao Cup Betting Insights

Pedro Neto and Chelsea host the Gunners in the Carabao Cup Semifinals - Arsenal Chelsea Picks

Pedro Neto and Chelsea host the Gunners in the Carabao Cup Semifinals

Although Chelsea have not been performing up to their standard in the EPL, they still have plenty of firepower on offense. The Blues are No. 8 on the EPL table as it currently stands, but are just three points out of fifth place. The race for spots four through eight are very intense, and yes, that is where Chelsea should be focused. However, at home, against Arsenal, I expect them to come ready to play in this Carabao Cup Semifinal. But taking down the Gunners is no easy task.

Arsenal have lost just twice all year long, on the road to Aston Villa, and against Liverpool at Anfield. Other than that, they have been perfect, including going 6-0-0 in the UEFA Champions League. Unlike Manchester City, the Gunners do not have a tough matchup in league play this weekend, so there's no reason for them to look ahead. Therefore, we should be getting Arsenal's best 11 today at Stamford Bridge.

Matchup Information – Chelsea vs. Arsenal – January 14

  • Venue & Location: Stamford Bridge (London, England)
  • Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2025
  • Kick Off: 3:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: Paramount+

Chelsea vs. Arsenal Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook as of January 14, 2025, at 9:23 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus and 50 slot spins., and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.

Moneyline

  • Chelsea +245
  • Draw +230
  • Arsenal +100

Draw No Bet

  • Chelsea +152
  • Arsenal -200

Total

  • Over 2.5 (-109)
  • Under 2.5 (-117)

Chelsea will obviously play their heart out, but the Gunners should give maximum effort as well. Arsenal are on top of English soccer at the moment, but have not lifted the Carabao Cup since 1993. They've lost in the final three times since then, so I expect them to be plenty motivated heading into this contest.

Chelsea vs. Arsenal Carabao Cup Picks

Declan Rice is having the best season of his career for the Gunners - Arsenal Chelsea Picks

Declan Rice is having the best season of his career for the Gunners

Best Bet: Chelsea/Arsenal 1H Draw (+115) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

We know how dominant the Gunners are, I've been preaching it since we booked them to win the EPL in August. We already saw these teams play once this year at Stamford Bridge. Back in November, the teams played to a 1-1 draw, with both goals coming in the second half. I have several different routes to potentially bet this game, but you can all decide how you want to attack.

  • Chelsea/Arsenal 1H Draw (+115)
  • Chelsea/Arsenal 1H Under 0.5 (+190) 0.5u
  • Arsenal ML/Under 2.5 (+380) 0.25u

Obviously those two latter bets are long shots, but they both fit with the game script in my head. I think we see both teams being cautious in the first half, trying to limit their own mistakes. Remember, these teams have a second leg to improve their aggregate score, and there is no benefit to scoring on the road. Chelsea will try not to mess up and give the Gunners a cheap one, while Arsenal is fine going back home tied on aggregate.

I'll be opting in for a classic 45 minute sweat. After (hopefully) a scoreless first half, I do see Arsenal finding a goal or two in the second to win this match, and bettors could also bump the parlay up to Arsenal ML/Under 3.5 for (+190) for some extra cushion. Pick your poison this afternoon.

Prediction: 1H 0-0 Draw (+190), Arsenal Wins 1-0 (+675)

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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