Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Picks and Predictions: Carabao Cup Semifinals

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Last Update: Tue Jan 13, 2026, 12:02 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Rayan Cherki came off the bench but still assisted on both of Manchester City's goals last weekend - Expert Soccer Picks

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The Carabao Cup is down to its final four teams, as the semifinals begin in England on Tuesday. Newcastle United sits just two matches away from the Cup Final, since these are two leg affairs, but they have Goliath standing in their way. On Tuesday, the Magpies host Manchester City in the first leg of this semifinal contest. Do they have it in them to upset City at home and set themselves up for success going forward? Or will Manchester City assert their dominance, trying to coast at home in the second leg? Let's get into our favorite picks and more from our soccer betting analysts.

Best Bet: Newcastle United/Manchester City Under 3 (-112) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks, for tons of picks in different soccer leagues across the world.

Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Carabao Cup Betting Insights

Nick Woltemade has seven goals for Newcastle this EPL season - Newcastle United Manchester City Picks

Nick Woltemade has seven goals for Newcastle this EPL season

Keep in mind, this is the first of two legs. If things are tied after 90 minutes in this match, nothing happens. The match would end as a draw, and they would start their second leg tied on aggregate goals. There is no tiebreaker based on away goals anymore, so there's no reason for Manchester City to be overly aggressive in this opening contest. Will that impact who we see take the field?

In late November, these clubs played in an English Premier League contest right here at St. James' Park. The hosts walked away victorious in that match, beating Manchester City 2-1, with all three goals coming in a seven minute span in the second half. Newcastle jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the 63′ minute, but their lead lasted just five minutes before City tied things up. However, the Magpies scored again just two minutes later and never looked back. Can they find a way to win again?

Matchup Information – Newcastle United vs. Manchester City – January 13

  • Venue & Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England)
  • Date: Tuesday, January 13, 2025
  • Kick Off: 3:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: Paramount+

Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook as of January 12, 2025, at 11:19 p.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus and 50 slot spins., and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.

Moneyline

  • Newcastle United +205
  • Draw +250
  • Manchester City +110

Draw No Bet

  • Newcastle United +130
  • Manchester City -170

Total

  • Over 3 (-108)
  • Under 3 (-112)

Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Carabao Cup Picks

Pep Guardiola and Manchester City take on the defending Carabao Cup Champions on Tuesday - Manchester City Newcastle United Picks

Pep Guardiola and Manchester City take on the defending Carabao Cup Champions on Tuesday

Best Bet: Newcastle United/Manchester City Under 3 (-112) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

Despite holding just one-third of possession in the first meeting, Newcastle was able to hold City to just four shots on target. They are currently No. 6 on the EPL table, but are tied for No. 8 in terms of goals allowed. Defense will need to be a key in this match, and I'm sure the hosts are well aware. You know the attacking power City has on their sideline, so making sure the back line is tight and focused should be a priority.

City are the highest scoring team in the league, but they could be looking ahead, as they have the Manchester Derby this weekend at Old Trafford. Perhaps their minds are elsewhere, knowing they need to keep winning to catch Arsenal, but can afford to take their foot off the gas in this first Carabao Cup match. As long as City goes back home for the second leg with at least a tie on aggregate score, they'll be more than capable of blowing out Newcastle when they come to town.

With away goals not meaning anything extra, this is a spot where I see City starting some of their second team players, resting the big guns for Sunday's derby. Even though the City reserves are just as good, I think the Newcastle back line is capable of showing up when it matters at home in this Carabao Cup semifinal.

Prediction: 1-1 Draw (+625)

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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