Can Italy Pull Off an Upset vs France? Expert Picks for Today’s Nations League Slate

BettingThePitch

Written by: BettingThePitch

Published: Fri Oct 02, 2026, 9:33 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

BettingsNews Default Image

soccer

We're back with another loaded Nations League slate today!

It's been a great start to the tournament for us, so let's look to keep things rolling.

We also have some of the biggest countries in Europe taking the pitch today. More importantly, we're getting closer to the end of this international break.

That means points are becoming increasingly important in the standings.

As a result, I expect the intensity to pick up as teams look to put themselves in a strong position.

I have two plays that stand out today, and we're attacking goals in both.

Let's get into it!

Head over to our Soccer Picks Page for our expert's soccer analysis, or read my best bets below.

Click for more Soccer Picks

4.9/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
Up to $1,250 + 50 Free Slots Spins
See our review »
$1,250 Welcome Bonus
Bet Live on Your Favorite Sports
Earn More with Rebel Rewards!
Play Now & Claim Bonus »

Featured Plays

Belgium vs. Turkey

Can Arda and Turkey find a win today on the road?

I'm willing to pay the juice on this total for a couple of reasons.

First, Over 3 gives us push protection if the match lands on exactly three goals. Secondly, I think there's a realistic scenario where Belgium clear this number themselves.

However, I certainly wouldn't mind some help from Turkey.

The visitors continue to create chances, but finishing those opportunities has been a major issue.

Turkey have produced 4.1 expected goals through two matches during this break. Despite that production, they've only found the back of the net once.

Unfortunately for Turkey, this is more of the same from what we saw at the World Cup.

Still, I'm not overly concerned as long as they continue creating quality chances.

Eventually, those goals should start falling.

Interestingly, Belgium have dealt with a similar problem.

They've created more than 3.0 expected goals during this break but have scored only twice. So, both attacks have produced better underlying numbers than their actual goal totals suggest.

Then, of course, there's Senne Lammens.

The goalkeeper has made six saves in each of Belgium's first two matches and has been extremely busy.

I'm starting to think he's haunting me after I called him a downgrade from Thibaut Courtois. Apparently, he decided to turn into prime Courtois as soon as I wrote it.

All jokes aside, his workload is worth noting.

Belgium are still allowing opponents to create opportunities, and Turkey have shown they can generate chances.

On the other end, Belgium have been extremely dangerous at home.

Outside of their most recent home match against France, they've scored at least three goals in five of their last six.

Turkey's aggressive style could also play directly into Belgium's hands.

The visitors want to push numbers forward and apply pressure. However, that approach can leave plenty of space when possession turns over.

Belgium have enough quality to punish them in transition.

Ultimately, we have Turkey underperforming their attacking numbers and Lammens playing above expectations in goal.

I don't expect both trends to continue forever.

With the amount of chances these teams are creating, I think this is a spot where the finishing finally catches up.

Give me goals in Belgium.

Play: Belgium vs. Turkey Over 3 Goals (-145)

France vs. Italy

I know France matches have been low scoring to begin the tournament.

However, I think this team is still adjusting to life under Zinedine Zidane.

We knew there would be some growing pains with a new manager and system. Additionally, Zidane rotated his squad a little in the last match.

Today should be different.

With a full-strength lineup expected at home, I think we finally see some of France's ridiculous attacking potential.

There's simply too much talent in this squad for the goals to stay quiet forever.

Meanwhile, Italy enter this matchup after an impressive response in their second game.

They let us down in their opener by failing to score despite creating chances. However, they followed that performance by putting four past Turkey in a difficult road environment.

The underlying numbers tell an interesting story.

Italy have created 3.98 expected goals through two matches while conceding 5.65 expected goals.

That's exactly the type of profile I want when betting an over.

Their aggressive approach has produced end-to-end matches with chances coming at both goals. As a result, this matchup could get very entertaining if France are willing to match that tempo.

I think they will.

France are a team that can explode offensively once they find their rhythm.

The biggest issue so far has been their slow starts.

However, this feels like a matchup where that changes.

If France can find an early goal, Italy will have no choice but to push forward. That should create even more space for Dembele and company going the other way.

In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if we see two or three goals before halftime.

Again, I'm taking Over 3 because I want the push protection.

However, there's also a scenario where France do most of the work themselves.

Still, I expect Italy to contribute.

Their midfield and attack have looked dangerous throughout this break, even when the finishing hasn't always been there.

On the other side, Zidane has France playing much more organized defensively.

Those mental mistakes we saw from this team in the past already seem less frequent. However, Italy are creating enough chances that I still believe they can find at least one.

An early France goal could be exactly what this match needs to explode.

Give me goals in Paris.

Play: France vs. Italy Over 3 Goals (-120)

Still Want More Soccer Content?

Here at Betting News, we offer free expert picks for every major sports league.

We also host daily streams on our Twitch channel. There, we break down our favorite bets and sweat out the action live!

Be sure to check out our content on YouTube, TikTok, and X. You can also follow my personal X account, @BettingThePitch, for additional free plays, soccer coverage and content throughout the entire season.

Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly

Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER

More Free Betting Tips

BettingThePitch
BettingThePitch

Just a guy who loves sports, soccer and beating the books!

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.