Euro 2020 Group D outlook: Favored England clears one big hurdle as Czech Republic puts one foot in the round of 16

Eddie Griffin

It doesn’t make up for missing out on the 2018 World Cup final, but England opened their Euro 2020 in the best way possible by downing Croatia 1-0 on Sunday. It wasn’t a memorable performance, but England took all three points thanks to Raheem Sterling’s goal in the 57th minute.

The most memorable moment in the first round of Group D action was reserved for the Scotland vs Czech Republic match, where this happened:

Is goal of the tournament already wrapped up? That one will be hard to top, to say the least. That was one of two Schick goals that helped the Czech Republic see off Scotland 2-0 and gain a big leg up on Croatia and Scotland for a place in the round of 16.

The next round of Group D fixtures takes place on Friday, with Croatia taking on the Czech Republic and England hosting Scotland.

With the first two matches now in the books, let’s take a look at the individual and collective outlook in Group D. Also, be sure to check out our other Euro 2020 content.

All Euro 2020 odds in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Tuesday, June 15 at 5:00 am ET.

Euro 2020 Group D Schedule and Results

Sunday, June 13

England 1-0 Croatia

Monday, June 14

Czech Republic 2-0 Scotland

Friday, June 18

Croatia vs Czech Republic, 12:00 pm ET

  • Moneyline: Croatia +110, Draw +230, Czech Republic +250
  • Total: OVER 2.5 (+126), UNDER 2.5 (-152)

England vs Scotland, 3:00 pm ET

  • Moneyline: England -340, Draw +420, Scotland +850
  • Total: OVER 2.5 (-116), UNDER 2.5 (-106)

Tuesday, June 22

Czech Republic vs England, 3:00 pm ET

  • Moneyline: Czech Republic +600, Draw +350, England -240
  • Total: OVER 2.5 (-152), UNDER 2.5 (+124)

Croatia vs Scotland, 3:00 pm ET

  • Moneyline: Croatia +100, Draw +230, Scotland +270
  • Total: OVER 2.5 (+112), UNDER 2.5 (-136)

Euro 2020 Group D Betting Odds

Odds to Win Euro 2020 Group D

  • England -600
  • Czech Republic +500
  • Croatia +2300
  • Scotland +4900

Odds to Win Euro 2020

  • England +500
  • Croatia +4000
  • Czech Republic +6000
  • Scotland +10000

Euro 2020 Group D Outlook and Betting Breakdown

Croatia

Losing to England was certainly not the ideal start for Croatia. But it also wasn’t the end of the world. They are favored to win in both of their remaining group games, and even four points could be enough to land a spot in the round of 16 as one of the top third-placed teams.

But can they generate more in attack against the Czech Republic than they did against England? This is where a finisher like Mario Mandzukic, one of the big heroes of their 2018 World Cup run, is sorely missed. Andrej Kramaric, who scored 25 goals in 34 appearances for German side Hoffenheim this past season, needs to produce.

Best Bet vs Czech Republic: Kramaric to score anytime (+200). Kramaric did not fare well against England, but he was also in a wide role when that is not his best role. If he isn’t forcibly played in that role again, he should perform better against the Czech Republic.

Czech Republic

The Czech Republic was not overly fancied coming into the tournament, but they are now in a solid position to reach the round of 16 after yesterday’s win over Scotland.

They did bend, but they did not break, and they did what Scotland couldn’t: score. And after taking a lead, they held on as Scotland tried to get back into the game.

The Czech Republic will face an even tougher task against Croatia. But Croatia have some questions to answer in attack, which could play favorably for the Czech side. Can they get a solitary goal and hold on for a win or a draw?

Best bet vs Croatia: Schick to score anytime (+240). While there’s not much in the way of star power for the Czech Republic, but this tournament could be big for Schick’s profile. After scoring twice against Scotland, he is well worth backing to find the back of the net against the Czech Republic.

England

Well, the performance against Croatia wasn’t sexy, but it was successful. It took almost an hour to break down Croatia, but they got the goal they needed and closed out the win from there.

The win over Croatia was England’s seventh straight overall, and six of those wins have been clean sheets. The only opponent to score against England in that stretch is Poland, who fell 2-1 to England on March 31.

Now comes a matchup with Scotland. England is heavily favored in this one, but that won’t mean much. Still, England should make it two wins from two games.

Best bet vs Scotland: Harry Kane to score is not especially great value at -150 as of the time of writing. So in lieu of suggesting that one, England to score over 2.5 goals is worth consideration as an excellent value option. It currently sits at +186 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

England have won 1-0 in their last three matches. You would have to think that won’t continue to be the case and that a breakout attacking performance is only a matter of time.

Scotland

Scotland’s first appearance at the Euros since 1996 did not get off to a good start. But on another day and more clinical finish, the result could have been different.

Now they face a match they must not lose, at minimum. A win over England, which would be their first over England since 1995, would be worth a great deal even if Scotland failed to make it out of the group stage.

Is it likely to happen? No. But talent and records can go out of the window when rivals are involved.

Best Bet vs England: Scotland over 0.5 goals (+114). There are lots of questions about where the chances and goals will come from for Scotland, but plus odds for them to score against England are really too good to pass up.

Additionally, if you really want to manifest some possible chaos, backing Scotland over 1.5 goals is also worth a punt as well. The most recent meeting between these two teams was a 2-2 thriller in 2018 World Cup qualifying. Even a small punt on these odds would pay out well, so it is definitely worth a little investment.

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