NHL Best Bets – NHL Futures and Awards: The Norris Trophy

Well the days are getting shorter, the nights are getting cooler and the ice sheets are getting placed. NHL is right around the corner, and I cannot wait for what could be a wild season. Like seasons past I will start previewing NHL best bets in the futures market to find some sneaky value as we get ready for the first faceoff, the first SOG, and first goal of the season. Today, we will discuss one of my favorite awards, The Norris Trophy which is given to the defenseman of the year.

The Norris Trophy race heading into 2026-27 is setting up to be one of the most wide-open in recent memory. Cale Makar enters as the favorite at +275, with Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski — who won the 2026 Norris after tallying 22 goals and 81 points — opening as the third favorite. In between those two, the market has left some genuinely compelling prices on the table. Here are three defensemen worth backing at their current numbers, from legitimate value to the longest of long shots.

As we ramp up to the first puck drop of the season, I will highlight some of my favorite NHL best bets in the futures market. We will kick it off with the trophys and move to player props next week. This will be an ongoing series until 9/29/26 when I will switch over to my weekly NHL best bet prop pieces.

So without further ado, let's kick it off with NHL best bets of the future markets!

1. The Second Favorite for the Norris Trophy: Quinn Hughes +400

Some things just take time. And this is particularly true for defensemen in the NHL when they are traded or get new defensive partners. Out of all the major sports, a defensive pair is perhaps the most tethered two players are. They either become a synched unit with unstoppable chemistry that can lift each other to new heights, or struggle to find each other on the ice. When Quinn Hughes was moved to Minnesota last December, it seemed like he struggled to find the perfect partner. But this year could be very different.

Hughes posted 76 points in 74 games last season after the trade, then produced 15 points in 11 playoff games as the Wild reached the second round before Colorado eliminated them in five games. That production came in a split season where he had to learn a new system mid-year, integrate with new linemates, and adjust to a completely different organizational structure. He did all of that and still put up elite numbers. And that's why this is an NHL best bet for the season.

Hughes, who won the Norris Trophy in 2024 with a career-high 92 points (17 goals, 75 assists), is the kind of player who could give the Wild one of the top five skater duos in the NHL alongside forward Kirill Kaprizov. Now entering a full training camp in Minnesota, with a complete offseason to build chemistry with Kaprizov and settle into the system, the conditions are in place for a bounce back toward that 2024 ceiling.

Hughes is once again among the favorites in the Norris Trophy odds after establishing himself as one of the NHL's premier two-way defensemen. Entering the final year of his contract before a potential trip to free agency, Hughes has every reason to deliver another elite campaign as he looks to maximize his value. Contract year motivations are real and historically documented — players entering their final season before unrestricted free agency consistently post career-best or near-career-best numbers. Hughes has every financial incentive in the world to be the best defenseman on the planet in 2026-27. Oddspedia

The +400 is genuinely underpriced when you factor in that he's a former winner, entering a full season, on a motivated contract year, paired with one of the NHL's top offensive forwards. The Makar favoritism is understandable. But +400 on Hughes is the play that makes the most sense at face value.

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2. My Favorite for the Norris Trophy: Rasmus Dahlin +700

Nobody has been knocking on the Norris Trophy door longer or more consistently than Rasmus Dahlin. The frustrating part — for Dahlin backers and for the voters who keep overlooking him — is that he keeps getting better every single year.

Dahlin is coming off the best season of his career, putting up a career-high 74 points (19 goals, 55 assists) in 77 games and finishing third in Norris voting, the highest placement of his career. At just 26 years old, Dahlin is entering the prime of his career and still has room to grow. Third in Norris voting while leading a Buffalo team that ended the NHL's longest active playoff drought is not a consolation prize. That's a player who is firmly in the conversation — and who hasn't yet had the kind of dominant 90-point season that tends to close the deal. The Hockey Writers

According to Evolving Hockey, Dahlin ranked in the 93rd percentile in offense and the 91st percentile in defense last season, showing just how complete his game has become. From Nov. 15 through the end of the regular season, he recorded the fourth-most goals among defensemen, the fifth-most assists, and the fourth-most points. He's not just a power play quarterback racking up soft assists. He's a genuine two-way force, and the defensive improvements over the past two seasons have removed the last legitimate argument against him. Yardbarker

The opportunity this season is significant. With Bowen Byram and Alex Tuch departing this offseason, there's even more opportunity for Dahlin to drive Buffalo's offense and take on an expanded role. Three of the last four Norris winners have hit 90-plus points, and Dahlin has the offensive ceiling to join that group. A 90-point season from a defenseman who is already winning the defensive metrics battle is essentially the Norris formula — and Dahlin is positioned to check that box for the first time in his career. The Hockey Writers

"The potential for more points, a better team, and more team success could be enough to get him enough votes to win it," Bleacher Report's Adam Gretz wrote about Dahlin. The Sabres are legitimate Atlantic Division contenders. Dahlin is their captain. The stage has never been bigger. Yahoo!

At +700, the market is essentially saying Dahlin is a 1-in-8 shot for this NHL best bet. Given that multiple respected analysts have him as their outright pick to win the award, that price represents genuine value on a player whose trajectory points directly toward the top of the podium.

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3. The Longshot Norris Trophy Winner: Jacob Chychrun +5000

One of the reasons why I love the Norris Trophy is that it has some of the most variance of all the NHL awards. Well, at lease when Nicklas Lidström is not in the league. Just a couple seasons ago I sprinkled Erik Karlsson for the Norris at +20,000 after he had a hat trick early into the season, and he cashed that slip out 8 months later. Points, for better or worse, can win you the trophy and our longshot here knows how to rack them up.

Chychrun led all of the league's defenders in goal scoring last season, did not receive one vote of any kind for the Norris Trophy — despite scoring more goals (26) than all 14 players who received votes from the Professional Hockey Writers Association. He tied the all-time mark for game-winning goals by a defenseman (8) and is the sole post-lockout defender with at least 18 even-strength goals to earn zero Norris Trophy votes. Read that again. The man who led every defenseman in hockey in goals didn't get a single vote. And now the market has him at 50-to-1 to win the same award. Russian Machine Never Breaks

The disrespect continued this summer. After not receiving a single Norris Trophy vote of any kind, Chychrun was also left off NHL Network's list of top 20 defensemen in the league heading into the 2026-27 season — despite scoring more goals than all 20 players on the list and recording the same amount or more points than all but eight of the listed defenders. Russian Machine Never Breaks

Chychrun, who set NHL career highs in assists (34), points (60), power-play goals (8) and power-play points (18) last season, could further emerge into a No. 1 defenseman given John Carlson's departure from the Capitals. The man who controlled Washington's top power play unit, who served as the distributor that freed Chychrun to be a pure scorer, is gone. Now Chychrun owns that role completely. NHLRotoWire

The path to a Norris vote — let alone a Norris win — for Chychrun is a longshot for an NHL best bet. He needs the assists to follow the goals. Last season he had 34 assists on 26 goals, which is a distribution that voters historically discount. But with Carlson gone and Chychrun now running the entire show on Washington's power play, the assists figure should climb dramatically. A 70-75 point season, paired with the goal totals he's already demonstrated and a clear identity as Washington's unquestioned No. 1 defenseman, would make it legitimately difficult for voters to leave him off the ballot a second consecutive time.

Chychrun was one of two defensemen to rank in the top 10 of his position in high-danger shots on goal (first), mid-range shots on goal (seventh), and long-range shots on goal (tied for eighth). He generates volume from everywhere on the ice. He plays 23+ minutes a night. He leads a playoff contender. The only thing that has kept him out of the Norris conversation is the league's institutional bias toward assist-heavy, point-per-game types over elite goal scorers. If the narrative shifts — and the departure of Carlson gives it every opportunity to shift — Chychrun at 50-to-1 is the best value on the board. NHL

This is a dart throw. A small unit. A ticket on a player the entire hockey establishment has inexplicably decided to ignore despite a season that by pure production numbers should have at least earned a fifth-place vote. At +5000, you don't need him to win. You just need him to finally get the recognition the numbers have demanded for two seasons running — and the setup for that moment has never been better.

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