NHL Way Too Early Futures – The Calder Trophy

Ivar Stenberg could be a top winger in the NHL

The phone call has already happened. Macklin Celebrini — the second-year superstar who just posted 115 points and finished fourth in NHL scoring — personally reached out to Ivar Stenberg the moment the San Jose Sharks made him the second overall pick in the 2026 Draft. And what Stenberg said in response captures exactly why this Calder NHL Futures bet is worth taking at +650 — and exactly why it carries real risk that demands honest discussion. "That would be sick," Stenberg said when asked about potentially playing with Celebrini. The vision is there. The talent is there. The relationship is already forming. The question — the one that will determine whether +650 looks like brilliant foresight or misplaced hope by February — is whether Stenberg actually ends up on Celebrini's wing or finds himself further down the lineup on a loaded Sharks roster.

Before engaging the roster uncertainty, let's establish what Stenberg actually is, because the foundation of this bet starts with understanding that you're not gambling on projection. You're betting on a player who has already proven himself against professional competition.Stenberg spent 2025-26 in the Swedish Hockey League where he posted 11 goals and 33 points in 43 games — production that ranks among the best ever by a draft-eligible skater in league history, ahead of Nicklas Backstrom, Leo Carlsson, and William Eklund and behind only Henrik and Daniel Sedin. The Sedins. A duo who combined for seven Art Ross Trophies. That's the historical company Stenberg's debut SHL season put him in before he turned 19.

The setup for Stenberg's Calder campaign is almost too perfect if the lines fall the way San Jose's front office appears to intend. If he plays alongside Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith next season, as some expect, he could be one of the favorites to compete for the NHL's Calder Trophy by the end of the season. A rookie left wing playing 20-plus minutes a night next to the fourth-leading scorer in the NHL, on the top power play, on the best young team in the Western Conference — that's a Calder-winning environment for an NHL futures best bet.

Here's where honesty matters — and why this bet is explicitly framed as a value play on uncertainty rather than a lock. San Jose is not a thin roster handing Stenberg a top-six role by default. The Sharks may find Stenberg as a better fit on the 2nd line with Misa or even further down the line up to give him mismatches.

So why take the bet? Because +650 prices in the uncertainty without fully crediting the upside.

If Stenberg plays with Celebrini — which the organizational setup, the Eklund trade, and the direct communication between the two players all suggest is the intended outcome — the point production ceiling for a 19-year-old rookie on that line is genuinely elite, making this NHL futures one I have to dabble in.

Tij Iginla is a sneaky Calder pick

Let's be honest about what +3000 means. This is not a confident prediction. This is not a value bet hiding in plain sight the way Frondell at +900 is. This is a swing — a calculated, story-driven, upside-heavy swing on a 20-year-old son of a legend who enters this offseason with legitimate top-six aspirations, a Utah Mammoth roster loaded with elite talent, and a development arc that the injury-interrupted 2024-25 season may have accidentally accelerated. At 30-to-1, you're buying a lotto ticket on this NHL futures best bet

This season, Iginla scored 41 goals and 90 points in 48 games for the Kelowna Rockets. Ninety points in 48 games is not a soft WHL number from a player coasting on a weak roster. That's a point-per-game-plus pace that puts him among the elite junior producers of his draft class, posted in his third WHL season with two years of professional development behind him. In 2024-25, Iginla's season was cut short after he underwent hip surgery in December — but before going down, he had cobbled together an impressive 32 points in only 21 games. That surgery, frustrating as it was in the moment, may be the most important detail in this entire Calder argument. Because of it, Iginla spent an extra year developing — adding strength, refining his game, working with his father.

And that extra year of development is where the structural Calder argument lives for Iginla, and it's the same logic that drives the entire +3000 play: he is simply older and more developed than most of the rookies he'll be competing against for ice time and award consideration. Utah's top six heading into 2026-27 is genuinely elite. Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley, and Clayton Keller form a core that would be the envy of most franchises, and the Mammoth has high expectations for Iginla as someone who could be their most impactful offensive prospect. If Iginla makes the roster and sticks in the top 6, he has just as good of a chance to win the Calder as the favorites. It's a BIG if, but at +3000 the odds on this NHL future are worth a sprinkle.