NHL Best Bets 6/09/26 – The Stanley Cup Finals

Knight defenseman Shea Theodore moves the puck around Mammoth forward Logan Cooley.

Theodore has a point in all two of the three games of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final. But more impressively is that he has FIVE points in those two games. He is clearly showing that the offense can funnel through his big TOI and playmaking, and this is exactly why we are targeting him for an NHL best bet.

The most underappreciated element of Theodore's point prop is what his ice time deployment means for opportunity volume. Theodore played 51 shifts in Game 3, logging a career-high 39:09 of ice time — in a game that went to double overtime, yes, but still an extraordinary number that speaks to how indispensable Tortorella considers him in the highest-leverage moments of the series. He is still averaging 27 minutes a game over the last 10 games of the Stanley Cup playoffs. And players who spend nearly half the game on the ice, logically have a good chance to find their name on the scoresheet.

Theodore assist for +135 is worth a sprinkle as well

Theodore's production in this series isn't a sudden explosion — it's the culmination of a postseason spent quietly building one of the best statistical cases of any defenseman remaining in the playoffs.

Theodore's goals, assists, and points all lead the Golden Knights' blue liners during this entire playoff run, making him the de facto offensive leader on the Vegas back end. In a postseason where critics have pointed to Vegas's blue line as a relative weakness compared to Carolina's corps, Theodore has been the answer — generating offense at a rate that keeps Vegas's power play and transition game functioning at a high level.

Beyond this postseason, Theodore's history in the Stanley Cup Final specifically is one of the strongest cases you can make for any defenseman's point prop.Theodore has 12 points — three goals and nine assists — across 11 career Cup Final games. He is Mr Clutch for the Vegas Golden Knights, and that is exactly why we are tartgeting him as an NHL best bet tonight.

Over 1.5 shots on goal for a third-line center might not be the flashiest prop on the board tonight, but when that third-line center is scoring in every game of the Stanley Cup Final, generating five high-danger shots in Game 3 alone, and is the long time Captain of the a team who has been fighting to make it to the Cup Finals for several years in a row; well then you have the makings of an NHL best bet tonight.

Let's start with the most striking data point from Game 3, because it reframes everything about how Jordan Staal is playing in this series. Staal was tied for the most high-danger shots on goal in Game 3 with five — matching Mitch Marner, the guy who scored the fastest hat trick in Cup Final history that same night.Read that again. The 37-year-old checking center who gets written off as a defensive specialist matched the hottest player in the entire playoffs in high-danger shot volume in a single game. That's not a player drifting on the perimeter — that's a player getting to the dangerous areas in front of Carter Hart and pulling the trigger repeatedly.

Staal has helped set the tone two games in a row now and at times has put his Hurricanes on his back to help lead two come-backs that have lead to a win and an overtime loss. The Captain now has a goal in three straight games and has become an unexpected game breaker for his team. And that third goal was historic. Staal was one of three Hurricanes to score goals in the historic 39-second burst in the third period — the fastest three goals in Stanley Cup Final history — as Carolina staged a four-goal comeback from a seemingly impossible deficit.

Staal's point at +150 is worth a look as well

Staal's shot volume doesn't happen in isolation — it's a product of the line environment he's playing in, which continues to be one of the most dominant possession units in the postseason. The checking line of Staal, Martinook, and Ehlers has an expected goals percentage of 70.3% at 5-on-5 — one of the highest numbers of any forward line remaining in the playoffs.

The third line now has 20 points in the playoffs, including six goals from Ehlers. When your line controls 70% of the expected goals and your winger is scoring at nearly a goal every two games, you're generating the kind of extended offensive zone time that produces shot attempts — including from the center who's parking himself in front of the net hunting tips and scramble chances. And you gotta shoot to score, which is exactly why this looks like an NHL best bet at a discount.