NHL Best Bet 01/06/2026

Last Update: Tue Jan 06, 2026, 4:03 pm ET

Read Time: 6 minutes

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First article of the new year, and I want to start off HOT. We have a tasty slate as the NHL ramps up towards the Olympic break. Over the next two weeks the stars should be all gas not breaks, but as we get deeper into January the Olympians may slow down a bit to give it their all on the world stage. All the more reason to find mispriced and discounted NHL player props and best bets. Let's start the year off right by boosting our 27-30 record on the articles. L

We will be breaking down NHL best bets here at Betting News all playoffs long! Each article will look for VALUE, as in straights you can take to build up your bankroll or pieces you can use to beef up your parlays. All bets will be -135 or better odds. And while we will focus on NHL player props, there are times we will take sides and totals. So keep your eyes peeled here as we will drop these throughout the week.

And if you haven't already be sure to check out some of my favorite futures and awards. So time to lace them up and get ready to ride with Betzky for my favorite NHL best bets of the day.

1. Zach Werenski o3.5 SOG -110 on Lucky Rebel:

Zach Werenski knows how to fling puck, making his SOG a great bet

Through 37 games, Werenski is averaging 3.76 shots per game on 139 total shots, while playing 26:40 per night—elite, "run-the-team" ice time for a defenseman. A 3.76 SOG average is basically living on the 3.5 line: you don't need an outlier game—just his normal workload and a typical game script. Not bad for Columbus's most important player.

Werenski has 38 shots in his last 10 games (3.8 per game). Even with a quieter 2-shot game vs Pittsburgh, the bigger picture remains that his shot attempts are consistently showing up. Over his last 10 games Werenski is averaging 6.9 shot attempts per game. And this is on the low end for him. On the road Werenski averages 8.3 shot attempts a game this season, where at home he averages 7.3. Tonight he will take on the Sharks in San Jose, a team who historically have been very weak to defensemen shots on goal.

San Jose is allowing 31.22 shots against per game this season. Columbus isn't a "low-event" team either, putting up 30.17 shots per game themselves.
Put those together and you get a matchup that naturally produces enough overall volume for a high-minute #1 defenseman to get to 4. Werenski has hit against them in 3 of the last 4 games, averaging 9 shot attempts and 5 SOG in those games. Not only does his 3.5 SOG prop look like a best bet, but taking him to 5+ looks decent as well.

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2. Connor McDavid o3.5 SOG +115 on Lucky Rebel:

Oilers players Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins celebrate after scoring a goal.

Connor McDavid must have received the memo that Nathan MacKinnon is running away with the Hart Trophy (MVP) this season, because he has absolutely CRANKED it up to eleven over the last month. In this past month McDavid has an insane 26 points in 15 games. This current pace means he is averaging over 2 points per game. He also has 14 goals in this span, and you gotta shoot to score.

Over his last stretch of games, McDavid's shot counts have jumped into the 5+ range on a regular basis. That's important because 3.5 isn't asking for a ceiling game—just a normal aggressive night where he fires when lanes open instead of forcing passes.Even if his season average sits closer to the mid-3s, that number lags behind what he's doing right now. When you see multiple games in a row clearing 4, 5, even 6 shots, that's a strong signal the role and mindset have shifted a bit toward shoot-first hockey.

But the matchup is really why McDavid's SOG is an NHL best bet tonight. Nashville is a team McDavid has historically generated shots against, not just points. Their structure can give up rush looks, and if they sag back to protect the middle, McDavid is more than happy to pull up and rip one himself. He averages 4.6 SOG in his last 8 games against the Predators, hitting his 3.5 SOG prop five times. He also averaged 7.5 shot attempts in these games.

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3. Alex Iafallo Point +175 on Lucky Rebel:

Winnipeg Jets players celebrate together after a big win.

Nothing like getting promoted to the top line and power play to give your production a boost. And Alex Iafallo of the Winnipeg Jets got just that, sliding in next to Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the top line. The Jets desperately need a win and are looking to tackle their lack of scoring depth by moving some of their role players around, and Iafallo got the preferential treatment.

Through the 2025–26 season, Iafallo has 13 points in about 35 games (6 goals, 7 assists)—good for roughly 0.34 points per game.
That might not leap off the page, but it translates to a ~1-in-3 chance of a point in any given game, which is solid for a middle-six forward. But now that he is on the top line and power play, he has a much great chance of scoring. And this NHL best bet is getting a price treatment like a typical third line layer.

Iafallo has proven to be a capable offensive contributor throughout his NHL career, with multiple seasons of 30+ points and a track record of secondary scoring when his line is clicking. Even if his season isn't elite-level, his knack for getting involved in plays around the net and being in assist lanes gives him a pathway to both goals and helpers. But best of all, Iafallo has a track record against the Jets opponent the Vegas Golden Knights. Over 10 games he has a point in 6 of them and 9 points total.

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