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By The Numbers: Best Bets From MLB, MLS and NHL (6/8)
Written by: Rachel Doerrie
Last Updated:
Read Time: 3 minutes
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It’s a beautiful day for sports, which means we’ve got plenty of best bets to sprinkle around. The MLS has a lighter schedule due to international breaks, MLB is in full swing and Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final kicks off tonight at 8pm EST on ESPN. Make sure to check out the betting previews for the series and for tonight’s matchup.
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Seattle v Sporting KC: Both Teams to Score (-140)
Form and run of play play a big factor in these bets and both teams have scored in 9 of Sporting KC’s last 10 matches. Both teams have scored in 4 of Seattle’s last 5 matches, as well. Given the style that both teams play, this game is ripe for the Both Teams to Score bet, as well as the Over 2.5 goals. The model has both teams projected for more than 1.3 goals each. Squads change over the course of the off-season but, these teams played in two high scoring affairs last season. Sporting KC has given up 2+ goals in five straight matches, and has been shut out only twice, all season. This is a good spot to take the juice and expect that the likes of Ruidiaz, Morris and Pulido will contribute to the the offensive output in tonight’s match.
Minnesota v Dallas: Minnesota to Win (+115)
Minnesota is averaging nearly two goals per game this season, and have scored 2+ goals in seven of their last eight matches. Dallas has scored at least once in seven of their last eight matches, and have struggled to defend this season. Coming off two consecutive losses in Los Angeles, Dallas heads into Minnesota, who have performed well at home. The Loons have yet to be shut out at home this season and Dallas has conceded at least one goal in every away match but one. Dallas has not won a game in four weeks and with a projected win% of 53% for Minnesota, this line has value. If you aren’t confident in Minnesota, take the Over 2.5 at -140.
Vlad Tarasenko Over 1.5 Shots (-135)
This is a great matchup for Tarasenko. The third line forward should be Abel o feast on the lack of Oilers depth and create offence for the Panthers. It is critical for Florida’s success that Taranseko and Anton Lundell feast on their matchup against the Oilers’ bottom-six players. Taranseko is projected for 1.87 shots on Betalytics, with a hit rate of nearly 60%. He’s going to see powerplay time and given his line’s ability to control the play in a good matchup, he is a ladder candidate at plus-money.
Tarasneko has hit this line in four of five and eight of his last 10 games. Edmonton’s bottom-six forward group has a propensity to bleed shots and this is a fantastic spot for both of Tarasenko and Lundell to get control the puck and hem the Oilers in their own zone. Parlaying both for 2+ shots is +190 and wroth a half unit.
Rachel Doerrie, also known as Nemo, is a good ol’ Canadian, raised in Toronto, the hockey mecca of the world. Her speciality is building models using various nerd math and makes her picks based on the outputs. She’s worked in the NHL and now builds models for NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB. When she’s not nerding out, she’s recording the Staff and Graph Podcast. You can follow her regular socials or the betting instagram @nemobets!
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