NFC North Division Odds: Where’s the Value?
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Fri Oct 30, 2026, 1:23 pm ET
Read Time: 11 minutes
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It's Week 8 of the NFL season, and the Vikings are undefeated atop the NFC North despite scoring the second-fewest touchdowns in the league (9). The Bears just traded two first-round picks (2027 and 2028) and a 2027 fourth-rounder for arguably the best defensive tackle in football, Jeffery Simmons. The Lions rank dead last in defensive EPA per play allowed, yet sit second in points scored per game (30.7) and third in offensive EPA per play.
And, oh, let's not forget about the Packers, who somehow got Josh Jacobs back in the lineup, are still awaiting the return of Micah Parsons and find themselves at the bottom of the division standings.
If you had read all of that eight weeks ago, would you have believed it? Probably not.
That's the beauty of football, and more importantly, the pandemonium that is the NFC North.
As we near the halfway point of the NFL season, let's take a look at the updated division odds and see which teams may offer value to bettors looking to crown the King of the North.
NFC North Division Odds (Via Lucky Rebel)
- Minnesota Vikings (+135)
- Chicago Bears (+230)
- Detroit Lions (+275)
- Green Bay Packers (+875)
Minnesota Vikings (+135)
Is there a bigger ticking time bomb in football than the Minnesota Vikings? And, of course, I don't mean in the sense of them exploding offensively or anything like that, but rather the possibility of them crumbling from within.
It's quite the aberration to see a team with only 10 total touchdowns leading one of the toughest divisions in football. Seriously, think about that. Through six games, the Vikings have just six passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns and one punt return score. The only team with fewer is the Los Angeles Chargers (0-6), who have nine touchdowns.
The 1-6 Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans have more touchdowns than the undefeated Minnesota Vikings. It's truly remarkable.
Naturally, their success is a testament to the work defensive coordinator Brian Flores has done. His unit allows the fewest points per game (12.3) and ranks first in EPA per play and success rate allowed.
However, with Kyler Murray under center, the offense ranks 32nd in success rate, 30th in EPA per play and 24th in points per game (20.8).
Among 34 qualified quarterbacks with a minimum of 128 plays, Murray ranks 34th in success rate and 28th in EPA per play. He has yet to throw for more than one touchdown or 247 yards in a game.
According to nfeloapp.com, the Vikings rank 15th in remaining strength of schedule. But similarly to just about everyone who has watched them this season, I'm not buying this team. I would, however, unload all of my capital on the defensive side of the ball, no question, but I wouldn't touch the offense with a 10-foot pole.
They'll likely end up in the postseason. It would be appalling for a 6-0 team to miss the playoffs, but their success is unsustainable given their lack of offensive prowess and the talent throughout the rest of the division.
Chicago Bears (+230)
The Windy City was filled with smiles on Thursday after news of the Bears acquiring 2025 first-team All-Pro and four-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons hit the timeline.
Simmons fills a massive void in the Bears' defensive interior that's been vacant for years.
This is the type of move teams make when they're confident they have a squad that can make a Super Bowl run. And why shouldn't Chicago feel that way?
They have an emerging superstar in Caleb Williams leading the charge, who ranks first in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), fifth in EPA per play and ninth in success rate. Since returning from his hamstring injury, Williams threw for 305 yards with an 83.3% completion rate on the road against Atlanta, then followed that up on a short week with a 308-yard passing performance and a 30-24 win over one of the league's top defenses and last year's runner-up, the New England Patriots.
The offense is clicking under mastermind Ben Johnson, and they've shown they can hang with any opponent on that side of the ball. But the defense, well, that's another story.
Even though they rank fourth in success rate allowed, it's obvious there are holes throughout this unit. Credit defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, who's made the most of what little he's had to work with.
Getting cornerback Kyler Gordon back in the fold has been enormous. Gordon has played just two games this season, yet is tied for the most sacks on the team with four. Remember, he's a corner and has played only two games.
It's been evident to viewers that their supposed top defensive player, fellow corner Jaylon Johnson, has lost a step this season, but they've still managed to get by.
And that was pretty much their M.O. after Williams suffered his injury: "Manage to get by."
They did so with Case Keenum under center in a prime-time win against the Eagles, 27-7, then Tyson Bagent followed accordingly by guiding the Bears to a 23-12 victory against the Jets. Week 5 was a nightmare, however, with Bagent under center, as they got clobbered on the road by their division rival Green Bay Packers, 31-7.
Imagine if Williams hadn't hurt his hamstring as he was about to cross the plane into the end zone to take the lead in Week 2 against the Vikings. Imagine if he were under center at Lambeau Field in Week 5. Would we be looking at an undefeated Bears team atop the division? Perhaps. But we're not here to play ifs and buts. We have to assess each team going forward with the evidence and roster we have in front of us.
I'd be shocked if the Bears don't end up a playoff team, as would most people. I mean, they have the second-shortest odds to win the division and the fourth-shortest (+950) to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, according to Lucky Rebel.
Does that mean there is value in wagering on them to win the division at +230 odds? Not necessarily. I do believe they're in a strong position to do so, but the price isn't quite right for me to invest at this point.
The division is a gauntlet, and the Bears have notoriously struggled against those opponents under Ben Johnson, with his 2-6 record against the North. I expect that trend to reverse, but still, there's too much volatility in the North to justify taking just +230 with the Bears. Even more so because they have the fourth-toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL.
I have full confidence in their ability to win this division. It's just not the right time or price to invest in them given their recent success, upcoming tough stretch of games and shortened odds following the Jeffery Simmons bump.
Detroit Lions (+275)
Entering this season, the Detroit Lions had the easiest strength of schedule. Quite the gift for a team that finished 9-8 last season, huh?
Either way, it has set them up with a favorable path to claiming the division once again. At the moment, they sit 4-2, with one of their losses coming against the Buffalo Bills on a short week on the road. That matchup against the Bills was always going to be the toughest on their schedule, though, so the loss didn't move the needle in my evaluation of the Lions whatsoever. The other was a 32-26 road loss at the hands of the Carolina Panthers.
On the surface, there don't appear to be many problems with Dan Campbell's crew, but if you dig into the numbers, or even just watch a game or two, it's evident there are red flags scattered throughout their defense.
The Lions rank 32nd in both yards per game (391) and EPA per play allowed, and 26th in both success rate and points per game allowed (27.5).
That's what's holding this team back, not their prolific offense that sits second in points scored per game (30.7) and third in offensive EPA per play.
But while everyone continues to write this team off after another poor defensive showing, I'm sitting back and waiting for the right opportunity to strike.
Jared Goff is playing at an MVP level right now, and their offense is good enough to compensate for how poor their defense is. Factor that in alongside the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule, and it's not hard to justify jumping aboard the Lions' NFC North title train.
Sure, their defense is inevitably going to screw them when it matters most in the postseason, but that's not what this discussion revolves around.
The Lions are a solid look to win the NFC North, and I would take a stab on them at +300 or better, which is available at several shops.
Green Bay Packers (+875)
Then, at the bottom, *I type with a grin on my face*, are the Green Bay Packers.
Talk about a volatile team. They blew a 12-point lead in Week 1 against backup quarterback Carson Wentz and the Minnesota Vikings, barely escaped with a 20-17 overtime win against the lowly New York Jets and got crushed by Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons in a 35-14 prime-time loss in Week 3. Then, in Week 4, they barely escaped once again with a three-point win, this time against backup quarterback Jalon Daniels and the Bucs.
Quite the four-week stretch.
Afterward, they faced another backup quarterback in Tyson Bagent and torched the Bears' defense on their way to a 31-7 win. They then took advantage of one of the worst defenses in the league in the Dallas Cowboys, yet managed just 23 points. Granted, they still won.
They followed that up by missing a pair of short field goals and making some cowardly coaching decisions in a 20-17 loss against the Lions in Week 7, but bounced back with a 27-19 win on a short week against the Carolina Panthers.
All of that brings the Cheeseheads to a 5-3 record and +875 odds to win the NFC North.
I get the temptation to jump on that price, truly. It's clear when watching this team that their offensive ceiling is high and their defense is improving. Plus, they're still awaiting the return of arguably the best defensive player in football, Micah Parsons, to wreak havoc in the trenches.
But the numbers still point me in the other direction, as they did entering the season.
Offensively, the Packers rank 27th in success rate and 17th in EPA per play. Even with the return of Josh Jacobs, their run game is inefficient. Jacobs is overweight, slow and averaging just 2.3 yards per carry on 32 attempts through two games. Those two games came against two of the worst run defenses in the league.
And while Jordan Love produces numerous highlight-worthy throws each game, he makes almost as many egregious decisions in the red zone and elsewhere that leave you wondering what on earth he was thinking.
Love also ranks 25th in both success rate and CPOE, and 13th in EPA per play.
Their remaining schedule is on the favorable side, ranking 12th-easiest entering Week 8, so don't be surprised if they make a run for the top.
But even still, I'm not eager to trust a team whose coach is making the wrong decisions in the red zone, has a massive kicking issue similar to last year, virtually no run game and a quarterback who continues to make abysmal decisions.
They've gotten by well enough thus far, but at some point, it's going to catch up to them.
Again, I get the appeal of taking such a juicy price compared to the rest of the division, so if that's your cup of tea, so be it. I just won't be drinking it with you.
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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