Chasing Six | NFL Divisional Round – Anytime Touchdown Bets
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Sat Jan 17, 2026, 4:30 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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We're onto the Divisional Round in this year's NFL Playoffs and these matchups have me so excited. We've got some decent weather conditions this week so let's jump right into my favorite touchdown scorers in the Divisional Round.
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Colby Parkinson Anytime Touchdown (+240) | Lucky Rebel
Last game of the weekend, let's start there.
Colby Parkinson saw just 3 targets in the Rams' Wild Card game, catching 2 for 34 yards and a touchdown. That touchdown just so happened to be the game winning touchdown. It came with just 43 seconds left in the game and was one of the nicest catches of the entire weekend.
Parkinson has seen 5+ targets in five of the team's last seven games. He's second on the team in redzone targets and 85% of them have come over the team's last 10 games.
Stafford's thrown 46 touchdowns this year, averaging 276.9 pass yards per game and he's completed 65.0% of his passes. In the Wild Card matchup with Carolina, Stafford threw the ball 42 times, completing just 57.1% of hiss passes in the rain. He still finished the day with 3 touchdowns, 1 interception and a passer rating of 93.8. The weather was wet, cold and super windy. It didn't seem to bother Stafford.
This week it's looking like a snow game in Chicago and that doesn't scare me. Last year Stafford went on the road to Philadelphia in the Divisional Round, threw for 324 yards, 2 touchdowns and finished with a passer rating of 97.2. He was sacked 5 times in that game and playing behind a bottom-5 offensive line.
This year that same offensive line is playing like a top-5 unit, the defense is top 10 in the league and this Rams' offense is the most potent in the NFL. They rank 1st in points scored, 1st in touchdowns and 7th in redzone conversion rate. This same offense converted 4/5 redzone trips last week and this week they face a Bears' team that ranks bottom-5 in pass rush and passing touchdowns allowed.
Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown (+310) | Lucky Rebel
This one's going to be an absolute sweat. The Broncos rank 1st in touchdowns allowed, 3rd in points allowed, 1st in opponent redzone efficiency and 7th in opponent pass yards. They've done a great job of shutting down opposing offenses and it's why we're getting this price.
Kincaid played just 12 games for the Bills this year and if you exclude games where Kincaid didn't finish the game, it's probably closer to 9/10. Despite missing so much time, Kincaid still lead Buffalo in receiving touchdowns (5) during the regular season and once again got in the endzone last week.
Allen threw just 1 touchdown in their Wild Card matchup with the Jaguars, running two more in with his legs. That one passing touchdown went to our boy, Kincaid.
Buffalo's a team that's more than happy to use their TEs, but with the injury to Tyrell Shavers, the Bills just don't have a ton of pass catchers left. Curtis Samuel remains questionable for the game and if he's unable to suit up, it's just Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks and Mecole Hardman.
The receiving room's depleted and even if it wasn't, Josh Allen's shown a special connection with Kincaid this year; especially when the Bills get into the redzone.
The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a top-2 secondary. Lead by the reigning DPOY, Pat Surtain II, this Broncos coverage unit has made it impossible for teams to reliably move the ball through the air. Despite that, the total is the 2nd highest on the board and the game sits close to a pick 'em.
The Bills are going to compete this week and if that's going to happen, Kincaid will need to be involved.
Jake Tonges Anytime Touchdown (+320) | Lucky Rebel
It might as well be National TE Day with the way I'm betting the board this week. This one I've got less data to go off because Tonges is the Niners' 2nd string TE and if Kittle wasn't out with the achilles tear, we're probably not talking about him.
That being said, Tonges has been fantastic when given the extra opportunity this year. In six games without Kittle this year, Tonges saw 5+ targets in each one and scored a touchdown in 3 of his last 4 without Georgey. The Hawks have done a great job this year at limiting big plays and it's why we've seen Brock Purdy struggle against this team.
Seattle's allowing just 4.5 yards per play (2nd) and 8.8 yards per completion (1st). They limit opposing teams to short routes, mainly over the middle and it's helped limit big plays and taken a ton of points off the board. This week with everything on the line, I'm expecting both Purdy and Head Coach Kyle Shanahan to have a way to counter.
Tonges is the exact guy to do it. Not someone on anyone's radar but someone who's able to take advantage of a mismatch.
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