Week 8 in the NFL is here and the slate looks really good this week. After back to back weeks of clear skies and sunny days, the rain is back and wind might be an issue. I've got 3 props I'm locked in on, let's jump straight into it.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Yes, he just burned us last week and yes he only had 3 targets. Well, the Jets lost and handed the Dolphins their first win of the season. When you don't feed your top dogs, you get burned.
The Dolphins came into last week's game not having lead at any point in any game this season. Not only did they lead in this game, but they won and handed the Jets their 5th loss of the year and 2nd loss in a row.
Wilson's seen just 9 targets in those 2 games, bringing in 6 for a total of 70 yards and no scores. The problem with that is Wilson's been one of the league's best separators this year and he deserves more targets.
Wilson ranks 2nd this year in separation score, 1st in route win rate and he's been great regardless of coverage. The Raiders have given up the 9th most pass yards to opposing QBs this year. The defense is allowing the 5th best passer rating in the NFL (103.7) and Geno Smith's been good this year.
Smith's averaging just under 240 pass yards per game, he's thrown 10 touchdown passes and he's got just 2 interceptions. Wilson has been his top target this year with a 25.1% target share, 89% route share and 39% air yards share.
If Geno's going to have a big day, Wilson will be a big part of it.
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In case you didn't remember, let me remind you; T.J. Hockenson started his career here in Detroit. Hock last played for the Lions in 2022, when the team started the season 1-6 and traded him to the Vikings rather than extending him.
Hockenson would play 17 games that year, catch 86 balls for 914 yards and 6 touchdowns. He played in his first playoff game that same year, making 10 catches for 129 yards in a loss to the Giants.
The Vikings rewarded Hock with a record-breaking (at the time) 4-year, $68.5 million extension and while he's been under utilized the last two years; that finally seems to be changing.
Hockenson is 2nd on the Vikings in target share (18.9%), 2nd in team receiving yards share and 1st in yards after the catch.
Detroit's defense has been bad but they've done a good job generating pressure. The team ranks 26th in points allowed, 19th in opponent yards per play and dead last in pass yards allowed.
The Lions also rank dead last in yards allowed to the TE position and Jack Campbell's really been struggling in coverage. Campbell's been targeted 31 times, he's given up 27 receptions for 274 yards, 4 touchdowns and a passer rating of 143.1 when targeted.
After going back to Garrett Wilson, how could I not go back to Kenneth Walker. Walker's been the best runner in the NFL this year and last week he went up against the best run defense in the NFL and I let the narrative get me.
The Seahawks came into that game with a chip on their shoulder and a directive to stop Kenneth Walker at all costs. They succeeded, Walker finished with a season low 36 yards on the ground, 21 through the air and he averaged just 3.2 yards per touch.
However this week, the Chiefs play the Broncos and if there's one thing the Broncos haven't done well; it's tackle. The Broncos lead the league in missed tackles and not by a small margin (+7). The team averages 7.6 missed tackles per game and Walker leads the league in missed tackles forced.
Walker is playing 75% of the snaps, he seeing 84% of the designated carry share and he leads the league with a 5.84 yards per carry average.
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