Can’t Miss Player Props for Week 5 — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (10/11)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Sat Oct 10, 2026, 8:00 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Spread
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Moneyline
+3.5
-115
43
-110u
+155
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Total
Moneyline
-3.0
-120
43
-105o
-170
The NFL season is flying by and it's just going too fast. We're already a quarter of the way into the season and it already feels like we don't have enough games left.
That being said, we've got a stacked Week 5 slate to jump into and I've got a few player props that peaked my interest. Let's dive into these games and talk props.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Best Bets for Week 5
- Michael Mayer o3.5 Receptions (-108)
- Zay Flowers o5.5 Receptions (-105)
- Michael Wilson o79.5 Receiving Yards (+105)
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Michael Mayer o3.5 Receptions (-108) | Lucky Rebel
We're probably going to bet Michael Mayer a ton this year, especially if we continue to get lines like this. Mayer had a career high 10 targets last week, catching 8 for 82 yards and no touchdowns.
Mayer currently leads the Raiders in snap share, he's 2nd on the team in target share and 1st in catchable target rate. He's been fantastic for the Raiders and it's easy to see why they rewarded this kid with a new contract in the off-season.
Mayer's role this offense is that of a release valve, a big bodied target his QB can go to when he's feeling the pressure or needs to get rid of the ball. Mayer's seeing a 17% target share this year, but just 12% 1st read target share.
The other TE on this team, Brock Bowers, is taking a majority of his snaps in the slot and out wide; leaving the TE role largely to Mayer. The Raiders will also be without Jack Bech, Dont'e Thornton and Jalen Nailor this week; leaving more targets up for grabs.
Lastly, the New England Patriot blitz at the 4th highest rate in the league (39%) and against the blitz is when Mayer thrives. Mayer's averaging 0.20 targets per route run (TPRR) this year and 1.48 yards per route run (YPRR).
Against the blitz, those numbers jump to o.35 TPRR and 2.65 YPRR. When opposing defenses don't blitz, it drops to 0.14 TPRR and 0.99 YPRR.
That means, compared to when teams don't blitz; Mayer sees a 150% increase in his target rate and nearly 170% increase in his production when facing the blitz.
Zay Flowers o5.5 Receptions (-105) | Lucky Rebel
Normally a backup QB making his first start of the year would make me hesitate, but Zay Flowers usage in this new Baltimore Ravens' offense just can't be ignored.
Zay Flowers in Declan Doyle's new offense:
- 28% Target Share
- 35% 1Read Target Share
- 95% Catchable Target Rate
Zay Flowers with Tyler Huntley under center:
- 32% Target Share
- 35% 1Read Target Share
- 93% Catchable Target Rate
New OC Declan Doyle came over from the Chicago Bears and it's clear how important the WR position is in this offense. With the Ravens set to face off against a high powered Atlanta Falcons offense, the Ravens will need to pass the ball.
Atlanta ranks 31st in receptions allowed this year, 29th specifically against the WR position. Chris Olave just recorded 8 receptions against this same secondary, while his teammate Devaughn Vele, finished with 7 catches.
The week prior it was Christian Watson and Matthew Golden finishing with 7 and 5, respectively. The Falcons give up a ton of production to outside wideouts and Flowers fits the mould perfectly.
Michael Wilson o79.5 Receiving Yards (+105) | Lucky Rebel
Another target magnet, Michael Wilson. Wilson's currently 9th in the NFL in target share, seeing 27% of the Cardinals' targets and accounting for 45% of the team's air yards. He's seen 7+ targets in all four games this year and has seen 30 targets over his last two games.
Wilson is 1 of just 6 receivers with 40+ targets this year. He's also 1 of just 4 receivers that have 40+ targets and an average depth of target of at least 10 yards. The other guys? Chris Olave, Jaxson Smith-Njigba and CeeDee Lamb.
Wilson's been keeping great company this year and he's been rewarded by both his head coach and his QB. He's being targeted often and he's being targeted aggressively. Wilson has a 36% 1st read target share, he's yet to drop a pass and this week they go up against the worst pass defense in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions rank dead last in pass yards allowed, first downs allowed, third down conversion rate allowed and 27th in yards allowed per play. The defense has been bad and their inability to bring pressure has only made the problem worse.
The Lions have given up 95+ yards to an opposing pass catcher every single week this year and they've given up 10+ catches/100+ yards to 3 of the 4 opposing WR1s they've faced.
Olave went for 10/182, Garrett Wilson 10/107 and last week it was Tetairoa McMillan going for 14/192. The Lions' secondary is bad and this week we're looking to take advantage.
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