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Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils Picks

Wallace Wade Stadium

<p>An indication of how eventful the 2025 college football season has been and could yet be is how much remains undecided in the FBS conference races. One of the wildest is in the ACC, where another turn will take place with the outcome of Saturday’s Virginia vs. Duke matchup (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2).</p>
<p>With three weeks of conference contests remaining, five ACC teams have one conference loss.</p>
<h2>ACC Football Standings</h2>
<ul>
<li>16 Georgia Tech (8-1, 5-1 ACC)</li>
<li>19 Virginia (8-2, 5-1)</li>
<li>22 Pittsburgh (7-2, 5-1)</li>
<li>SMU (7-3, 5-1)</li>
<li>Duke (5-4, 4-1)</li>
</ul>
<p>And outside of that group but still in the mix are No. 15 Miami (7-2, 3-2) and No. 20 Louisville (7-2, 4-2), who have opportunities to ensure others don’t get in even if they don’t either.</p>
<p>Virginia vs. Duke will serve as an elimination game for either the Cavaliers or Blue Devils, both of whom will be aiming to avoid a second straight loss.</p>
<p>Winning close games has been a big part of Virginia’s success this season, but with starting quarterback Chandler Morris sidelined after going down in the first half, the Cavaliers struggled to generate much offense in last Saturday’s 16-9 home loss to Wake Forest.</p>
<p>The Blue Devils had no problem scoring in a 37-34 loss at UConn last Saturday, but they were undone by porous defense and three turnovers by quarterback Darian Mensah.</p>
<p>But while they didn’t fare well in non-conference play this season, ACC play has been a different story, and a win over Virginia will enhance their chances of playing for the ACC title for the first time since 2013.</p>
<p>Whose conference championship hopes will still be intact on Saturday evening? Read on for our Virginia vs. Duke prediction and best bets. Also, get the best betting odds from <a href="/best-online-sportsbooks/">top online sportsbooks</a> such as <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BetOnline</a>.</p>
<h2>Virginia vs. Duke Betting Trends</h2>
<ul>
<li>Virginia is 6-4 against the spread this season, including 2-1 ATS as an underdog.</li>
<li>The Cavaliers are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road this season.</li>
<li>The over is 5-4-1 in Virginia’s games this season, including 1-2-1 in the Cavaliers’ road games.</li>
<li>Duke is 4-5 against the spread this season, including 3-3 ATS as a favorite.</li>
<li>The Blue Devils are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home this season.</li>
<li>The over is 7-2 in Duke’s games this season, including 3-1 in the Blue Devils’ home games.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Virginia vs. Duke Prediction and Best Bets</h2>
<h3>Prediction: Duke to win</h3>
<p>When you look at the conference title races across the top FBS conferences, many of the top contenders have either zero, one, or two losses.</p>
<p>And then there are the Blue Devils. In a roundabout way, they are getting exactly what they likely hoped for when breaking the bank to bring in Mensah.</p>
<p>The spotlight is on the $4 million man this week after his worst game of the season. Entering the UConn game, Mensah had only two interceptions in 290 attempts. But he threw two picks in 31 attempts against the Huskies, tallied a season-low 222 passing yards, and under the heat of a pass rush that leads FBS in sacks, fumbled away Duke’s chance to potentially send the game to overtime after reaching the UConn 39 on the final drive.</p>
<p>Virginia cannot match UConn in sacks, but they are tied for 23<sup>rd</sup> in the nation and fourth in the ACC in sacks (24) and will be hoping to bag at least a few vs. Duke and Mensah, who has been sacked at least twice in every game but one (in the Blue Devils’ loss vs. his former team, as it happens).</p>
<p>Keeping Duke’s offense in check will be the key to victory for Virginia, even with the tea leaves reportedly reading favorably for Morris to start vs. Duke after a scary hit against Wake Forest put him into concussion protocol.</p>
<p>With things trending positively on that front, line movement is trending Virginia’s way. But even though Morris and the Cavaliers have built up a lot of equity with their performances in close games this season, my lean is with the home team to deliver in what should be a third straight shootout for the Blue Devils.</p>
<h3>Virginia vs. Duke Best Bets</h3>
<h4>1) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/everygame/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Duke -4 (-110 at Everygame)</a></h4>
<p>There’s a good possibility this moves even more as kickoff draws closer, but I’m happy to lock it in at this number.</p>
<p>Is this going against logic? Perhaps. Duke has given up 30+ points five times this season, and their losses have been littered with mistakes and missed opportunities, including falling apart in money time at home against then-No. 11 Illinois and then-No. 12 Georgia Tech in what were close games until they weren’t.</p>
<p>On the flip side, Virginia has three overtime wins and four one-score wins, and if Morris is fit and firing, you can’t count them out even if they are in trouble late vs. Duke.</p>
<p>But the Blue Devils have been in every game that they have lost, and they keep putting themselves in positive positions even if they haven’t converted every time.</p>
<p>At some point, the scales are going to tip the right direction, especially when they have the offensive weapons that they do. They did to some degree in the win at Clemson, but the Tigers stink. This win will carry much more weight, which would have been quite the wild thing to say three months ago.</p>
<h4>2) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/luckyrebel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Darian Mensah (Duke) Over 281.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Lucky Rebel)</a></h4>
<p>After his worst game of the season, the only way is up for Mensah. Statistically, Virginia ranks around the middle of the ACC in yards allowed per pass and opponent completion percentage, but they are tied for third in interceptions and tied for fourth in sacks.</p>
<p>But I’m leaning with the pressure to perform bringing out the best in Mensah, who has thrown for 300+ yards five times and is averaging 310.4 passing yards per game this season. And even if it doesn’t, he may still get this one over the line if he has to try to drag the Blue Devils back in it from behind.</p>
<h2 id="other-college-football-betting-information">Other College Football Betting Information</h2>
<h3>Other NCAA Football Content at Betting News</h3>
<p>College football is one of the most popular sports to bet on, and Betting News cover it extensively. In addition to predictions and expert picks for matchups such as Virginia vs. Duke, you can check out our aggregated <a href="/ncaaf/picks/">college football picks</a>, compare <a href="/ncaaf/odds/">NCAA football odds</a> from <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BetOnline</a> and other <a href="/ncaaf/college-football-betting-sites/">college football betting sites</a>, and <a href="/sports-betting-guides/college-football-betting-guide/">learn how to bet on college football</a> through the content we have on the site.</p>
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