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Tennessee Volunteers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Picks

Davis Wade Stadium

<p>Three weeks ago, #HailState made major nationwide noise with a thrilling upset of then-No. 12 Arizona State. After closing out non-conference play with a perfect record, Mississippi State will look to make another loud statement in Starkville this weekend, this time in its SEC opener vs. No. 15 Tennessee (4:15 p.m. ET, SEC Network).</p>
<p>In Jeff Lebby’s first season, the Bulldogs went 2-10 and failed to register a single SEC win. After already doubling last year’s win total in eight fewer games, the mission now is to win a conference game for the first time since October 21, 2023, a 7-3 win over Arkansas.</p>
<p>Will that 12-game SEC losing streak that followed for Mississippi State (4-0) end vs. Tennessee (3-1, 0-1 SEC)?</p>
<p>After an agonizing overtime loss to Georgia two weeks ago, dropping to 0-2 in SEC play would be very damaging for the Volunteers’ hopes of making the College Football Playoff for the second straight season.</p>
<p>Can the Vols drown out the cowbells and survive in Starkville? Read on for our Tennessee vs. Mississippi State prediction and best bets, as well as the best line-shopped odds from BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks.</p>
<h2>Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Best Bets</h2>
<h3>Prediction: Mississippi State to win</h3>
<p>While the Bulldogs were one of the worst teams in the Power 4 last season, they did put in respectable performances against some of the best teams in the country.</p>
<p>That includes a 33-14 loss at Tennessee, which a nine-point game more than midway through the third and could have been even tighter with a better game from QB Michael van Buren, who was 10 of 26 for only 92 yards with an interception and a lost fumble.</p>
<p>Will a seemingly much improved Mississippi State team conjure up even more of a scare vs. Tennessee at home?</p>
<p>Key to the cause will be slowing down an offense that has scored 26 total touchdowns and put up 490+ yards in each game thus far.</p>
<p>The Bulldogs will also need to score their share of points, which means not having the slower starts they did against Southern Miss and Northern Illinois or the lull that they did against Arizona State, when they were stuck on 17 points for more than 40 minutes before striking for the game-winning touchdown in the final minute.</p>
<p>Obviously, there is no debate about the team that has the upper hand in this Tennessee vs. Mississippi State matchup. The Volunteers have a clear advantage in talent, are executing at a high level on offense, and could easily overwhelm the Bulldogs.</p>
<p>But winning is infectious. Confidence is contagious. The win over Arizona State showed that this team believes in itself, and while belief can only do so much when the talent is not there, improvements and upgrades in that department from last year to this year give this pack of Bulldogs a bigger bite.</p>
<h3>Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Best Bets</h3>
<h4>1) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mississippi State +7.5 (-115 at BetOnline)</a></h4>
<p>This number opened at or around double digits and has since moved to +7 at Everygame and many other college football betting sites. It is possible that some line movement in the other direction may occur before Saturday’s kickoff, but if you can still snag it at +7.5 without having to buy the half-point, do not hesitate to do so.</p>
<p>Do you believe in Tennessee? Take them to cover if you do. If the Vols win, there is a high likelihood it will be by 10+ points.</p>
<p>Are you on the same side as I am? You make this spread play and toss some coins on the ML for good measure.</p>
<p>A lot must happen for the Bulldogs to stay in and win this game. But weathering a tough stretch against Arizona State and keeping a steady head, first on defense to stop the Sun Devils at the 1 and force a field goal then on offense to deliver the decisive touchdown, will have been valuable for helping Mississippi State be able to stay the course over four quarters vs. Tennessee.</p>
<h4>2) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/luckyrebel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brenen Thompson (MSU) Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Lucky Rebel)</a></h4>
<p>After catching 13 passes for 225 yards in the first two games against Southern Miss and Arizona State, Thompson was less involved against Alcorn State and Northern Illinois, catching just four passes for 66 yards.</p>
<p>However, there was less emphasis on airing it out in either of those games. Quarterback Blake Shapen threw 33 passes in each of the first two games, but MSU had just 38 total pass attempts in the last two games.</p>
<p>We will see a more balanced gameplan against Tennessee, and that means targeting Thompson more. If he and Shapen connect a few times, his game-breaking speed can take this over to the bank in a flash.</p>
<h4>3) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/bovada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fluff Bothwell (MSU) Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Bovada)</a></h4>
<p>In the first two games, Bothwell, a transfer from South Alabama, tallied 77 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries.</p>
<p>But he found much more success against Alcorn State (93 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries) then ran for 101 yards on 17 carries against Northern Illinois.</p>
<p>With Davon Booth getting carries and Shapen (who had 51 yards on 11 attempts vs. NIU) also calling his own number from time to time, Bothwell is not an every-down back. But if he gets 12 to 15 carries, this is a very reachable number.</p>
<p>Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 2.6 yards per carry, so this number might be reached with several three to five-yard gains. But Bothwell had a run of 20+ against both Alcorn State and Northern Illinois, and even one of those would knock off a significant chunk of this.</p>
<h2 id="other-college-football-betting-information">Other College Football Betting Information</h2>
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<p>College football is one of the most popular sports to bet on, and Betting News cover it extensively. In addition to predictions and expert picks for matchups such as Tennessee vs. Mississippi State, you can check out our aggregated <a href="/ncaaf/picks/">college football picks</a>, compare <a href="/ncaaf/odds/">NCAA football odds</a> from <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BetOnline</a> and other <a href="/ncaaf/college-football-betting-sites/">college football betting sites</a>, and <a href="/sports-betting-guides/college-football-betting-guide/">learn how to bet on college football</a> through the content we have on the site.</p>
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