Oklahoma vs Texas Prediction & Picks: Sooners Shoot for Red River Rivalry Revenge

Eddie Griffin

Written by: Eddie Griffin

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Dillon Gabriel Oklahoma vs Texas odds prediction picks 10/7/23 cover


Next year, Oklahoma and Texas will take their longtime rivalry to the SEC. But before departing the Big 12, they have one more Red River Rivalry showdown on the gridiron, which will take place Saturday (12:00 pm ET, ABC).

This matchup has been pivotal in the Big 12 title race on many occasions, and while that wasn’t the case last year, it looks like it could be this year.

In 2022, a forgettable year for both teams, the Longhorns handed the Sooners their biggest defeat in the history of the rivalry. The 49-0 rout was also the first time UT had shutout OU since 1965, when Lyndon B. Johnson was president and gas was 31 cents a gallon.

Will this year’s clash at the Cotton Bowl be more competitive? The Longhorns have opened Big 12 play with dominant wins over Baylor and Kansas, but they are likely to see more of a challenge from the Sooners, who will match last year’s win total with a victory on Saturday.

Oklahoma vs Texas Odds

Odds are via Bovada as of 12:55 pm ET Wednesday, October 4, 2023.


  • Oklahoma +6.5 (-105)
  • Texas -6.5 (-115)


  • Over 60 (-110)
  • Under 60 (-110)


  • Oklahoma +215
  • Texas -260

Can Oklahoma Force Ewers Into Errors?

Quinn Ewers Texas Longhorns football 2023

After bending and breaking on a frequent basis last season, Oklahoma has seemingly made major strides defensively this year.

Last season, they allowed an average of 30 points per game, 5.7 yards per play, and 461 yards per game, and they allowed 30+ points seven times.

Through their first five games, the Sooners have allowed just 54 total points, an average of 10.8 PPG. Also, they are allowing just 4.6 yards per play and 319 total yards per game.

However, Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Iowa State are nowhere the level of the offensive opposition that Oklahoma will face Saturday.

The Longhorns are averaging 36.0 PPG, 6.9 yards per play, and 478.4 yards per game, and they have been productive through the air (286.6 YPG) and on the ground (191.0 YPG at 5.0 yards per attempt).

In last Saturday’s 40-14 win over Kansas, the Longhorns put up 661 total yards, with almost a 50-50 split between air (325) and ground (336).

Quinn Ewers was 25 for 35 for 325 yards and accounted for three touchdowns (one passing, two rushing), and Jonathon Brooks ran for 218 yards and two scores on 21 carries.

After completing only 58.1% of his passes last season, Ewers is completing 66.0% of his passes this season, and the interception he threw against the Jayhawks was his first of the year.

Quinn Ewers (Texas) Statistics

  • Passing: 97 of 147, 1358 yards, 10 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing: 25 attempts, 74 yards, 5 TD

But he could be in for a real challenge against an Oklahoma defense that has picked off ten passes (and allowed only five touchdown passes) and has 42 tackles for loss. In last weekend’s 50-20 win over Iowa State, the Sooners had nine tackles for loss and picked off two passes.

Ewers passed his biggest test of the year so far against Alabama last month, completing 24 of his 38 passes for 349 yards and three touchdowns. That should give him confidence for Saturday’s matchup.

If the game does end up being a shootout, Oklahoma is equipped to keep pace. Dillon Gabriel is off to a fine start this season, and he accounted for 403 yards (366 passing, 37 rushing) and five total touchdowns (three passes, two rushing) against the Cyclones.

Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma) Statistics

  • Passing: 118 of 157, 1593 yards, 15 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing: 29 attempts, 95 yards, 4 TD

The ground game hasn’t been as much of a factor for OU as in many other years, as they are averaging four yards per attempt and 157.6 yards per game.

But Gabriel’s legs will need to be active to maximize what he can do to the Texas defense, which has been strong so far overall but didn’t have to deal with Kansas QB Jalon Daniels, who missed the game due to a back injury.

Oklahoma vs Texas Football Head-to-Head History: Red River Rivalry Recent Results

  • 2022 (October 8): Longhorns 49, Sooners 0
  • 2021 (October 9): #6 Sooners 55, #21 Longhorns 48
  • 2020 (October 10): Sooners 53, #22 Longhorns 45 (4OT)
  • 2019 (October 12): #6 Sooners 34, #11 Longhorns 27
  • 2018 (December 1 – Big 12 Championship Game): #5 Sooners 39, #14 Longhorns 27
  • 2018 (October 6): #19 Longhorns 48, #7 Sooners 45
  • 2017 (October 14): #12 Sooners 29, Longhorns 24
  • 2016 (October 8): #20 Sooners 45, Longhorns 40
  • 2015 (October 10): Longhorns 24, #10 Sooners 17
  • 2014 (October 11): #11 Sooners 31, Longhorns 26
  • 2013 (October 12): Longhorns 36, #12 Sooners 20

Oklahoma vs Texas Prediction and Picks

Sooners vs Longhorns Prediction: Oklahoma to win

Sooners vs Longhorns Picks: Oklahoma +6.5 (-105 at Bovada) & Oklahoma/Texas over 60 (-110 at Bovada)

As much as Texas has impressed so far this season, it’s hard not to think back on all of the times in recent years that the Longhorns have seemingly been on the verge of something, only to disappoint.

This game is the spot where they are most likely to stumble from here until the end of the regular season. And while I don’t count myself among the most ardent of believers in Brent Venables’ Sooners, they have the goods to spring what would not be a surprise.

Red River Rivalry matchups can often get a little weird and wild, and as a lover of said chaos, this is the only outcome to predict.

Where to Bet on the Red River Rivalry

Most top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of college football odds throughout the season.

In addition to being able to make weekly college football picks all the way from Week Zero to the College Football Playoff National Championship, you can also bet on Heisman Trophy odds, conference championship odds, win totals, and much more.

Along with Bovada, there are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for college football betting.

Below are some of the other books that we highly recommend:

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

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Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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