New Mexico vs. Minnesota Picks and Predictions: Rate Bowl Best Bets
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Fri Dec 26, 2025, 11:01 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We've got some more Friday Bowl Game action in the desert as the New Mexico Lobos meet the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Chase Field in Phoenix for the Rate Bowl. The Lobos were an impressive 9-3 this year, their first winning season since 2016. They won the New Mexico Bowl back then, but have a chance at double digit wins for the first time since 2003 (as far as I can tell). As for the Gophers, they ended just 7-5, but are 6-0 in bowl games under PJ Fleck. Can he add another win on Friday? Let's get into our picks and find out.
Best Bet: New Mexico +2 (-111) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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New Mexico Lobos vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Rate Bowl Insights
Darius Taylor is likely opting out of the Rate Bowl on Friday
Let's talk opt outs and injuries! The Lobos are likely going to miss stud defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby who entered the portal and should earn some Power Four interest. However they might be getting DT Xavier Slayton and safety Drew Speech back to help their defensive unit.
As for the Gophers, they may be down to their third string running back. Stud Darius Taylor is on the potential opt out list, while RB2 Fame Ijeboi also might sit out. If neither plays, Minnesota has to make up over 80% of their rushing offense, turning to Grant Washington (21-132) and Cam Davis (34-109-2) to lead the backfield. Leading receiver Le'Meke Brockington has declared for the NFL Draft, and will probably not suit up in this bowl game either.
Matchup Information – New Mexico vs. Minnesota – December 26
- Venue & Location: Chase Field (Phoenix, AZ)
- Date: Friday, December 26, 2025
- Kick Off: 4:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
New Mexico vs. Minnesota Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of December 24, 2025 at 9:58 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 slot spins right away. Lucky Rebel offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- New Mexico +2 (-111)
- Minnesota -2 (-109)
Moneyline
- New Mexico +106
- Minnesota -130
Total
- Over 43.5 (-107)
- Under 43.5 (-113)
New Mexico won six straight games down the stretch, and only lost to Michigan, San Jose State and Boise State this year, all on the road. I'm sure plenty of Minnesota fans will make the trip to Arizona, but it's much easier for the Lobo faithful to support, especially the day after a holiday.
New Mexico vs. Minnesota Rate Bowl Picks and Predictions
Damon Bankston has over 500 yards on the ground for the Lobos this year
New Mexico vs. Minnesota Prediction: New Mexico Wins Outright, Under 43.5
Best Bet: New Mexico +2 (-111) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
We are still WAITING for this line to move. There are tons of 2.5s out there, and I am hoping we get a full field goal. Regardless, I will take the points, and possibly even sprinkle the moneyline in this game. The Gophers offense is non existent, and without their two top backs they are even worse.
Minnesota ranks bottom 20 in points per game and bottom five in yards per game. They are north of 60 in third down conversions, ranking No. 123 (bottom 15) in both yards per carry and per pass. All they do is throw the ball, over 55% of the time, but they aren't effective in doing so. While New Mexico's secondary isn't the greatest, their defensive unit overall is much better. They are top 20 in yards per carry allowed and top 12 at getting to the quarterback.
Offensively, the Lobos are top 50 in both yards and points per play, preferring to run the ball. While Minnesota is a top 50 rushing defense, they are north of 80 in third down conversions allowed and bottom 30 in opponent red zone scoring percentage. This is chance for the Lobos to end their best season of all time with 10 wins and seven straight to end the year, while Fleck's bowl record is in jeopardy with a beat up offense. Give me the Mountain West in this one.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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