Navy vs. Cincinnati Picks and Predictions: AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Fri Jan 02, 2026, 9:37 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The Navy Midshipmen end their season this afternoon against the Cincinnati Bearcats in Memphis at the AutoZone Liberty Bowl. This team only tasted defeat twice this season, losing to North Texas and Notre Dame in games where they were noncompetitive. However, the Bearcats started 7-1 this year, losing their final four down the stretch. Can they turn things around today and end the season on a high note? It might be tough with the roster they are bringing. Let's get into this contest with our favorite picks.
Best Bet: Navy -7.5 (-106) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Go check out what else I've got on the slate for bowl season, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Navy Midshipmen vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Liberty Bowl Insights
Brendan Sorsby will not play in the Liberty Bowl for Cincinnati, as he enters the transfer portal this offseason
Navy isn't missing too many players, and that makes sense. As you can't exactly opt out of military service once you join the Navy… Therefore, this Midshipmen team should be full strength and ready to get their 11th win of the year. They are a well oiled unit, ready to roll and have not been sitting at home on their butts for as long as Cincinnati have been. As for the Bearcats, things are much worse.
Cincinnati will be missing starting quarterback Brendan Sorsby who will likely be a top five, possibly top three, QB in the portal this offseason. They will also be without three starting safeties, all playing over 500 snaps this season, their starting cornerback and a backup, as well as their starting defensive end. Things are looking very thin for the Bearcats in this bowl game. Cincinnati likely is without defensive tackle Dontay Corleone as well, who is headed to the NFL.
Can they find a way to pull off this upset?
Matchup Information – Navy vs. Cincinnati – January 2
- Venue & Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, TN)
- Date: Friday, January 2, 2025
- Kick Off: 4:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Navy vs. Cincinnati Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of January 2, 2025 at 9:17 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 slot spins right away. Lucky Rebel offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Navy -7.5 (-106)
- Cincinnati +7.5 (-114)
Moneyline
- Navy -305
- Cincinnati +235
Total
- Over 54.5 (-111)
- Under 54.5 (-109)
Without Sorsby, Brady Lichtenberg and Samaj Jones will both get some reps leading this offense, but neither of those guys compare to the production Sorsby brings to this team.
Navy vs. Cincinnati Liberty Bowl Picks and Predictions
Blake Horvath has over 1,100 passing and rushing yards for Navy over the past two seasons, totaling 55 touchdowns
Navy vs. Cincinnati Prediction: Navy Wins and Covers, Under 54.5
Best Bet: Navy -7.5 (-106) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I have no faith in Cincinnati and I'll be fading them in this bowl game. The Bearcats went 0-4 to end their season, failing to cover any of those spreads as well. If you want to stop Navy you have to stop the run. Is Cincinnati capable of doing so? You tell me.
The Midshipmen run the ball over 76% of the time, doing so for 5.6 yards per carry, leading the nation with over 273 rushing yards per game. Although they do not pass much, they are still second in the country in yards per pass. To add to that, they are also top 10 in third down conversions.
Cincinnati ranks No. 90 in third down conversions allowed, and are No. 113 in yards allowed per game. Although their secondary will be thin, the trench unit will need to step up. The Bearcats are No. 75 in yards per rush allowed and north of 100 in rushing yards per game given up. Navy should be able to do anything they please offensively, and I don't trust Cincinnati to be able to replicate the scores they allow.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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