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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas A&M Aggies Picks

Kyle Field

<p>If you dislike the color maroon, you may not want to tune into the SEC Network tomorrow night at 7:30 p.m. ET (6:30 p.m. CT). If you like the color maroon (or either team), then Mississippi State vs. #6 Texas A&amp;M stands to be must-see television.</p>
<p>The Bulldogs (4-1) are on the road for the first time this season after a solid September in which they upset Arizona State and came close to adding a second top-15 upset last weekend against Tennessee.</p>
<p>For the Aggies (4-0), this is the middle game of a three-game homestand to open SEC play. Last week, they edged Auburn 16-10, and with Florida State, LSU, and Georgia all exiting the top 10 in the AP poll after losses, A&amp;M is now knocking on the door of the top five.</p>
<p>Though the home team is favored by more than two touchdowns, this is a matchup that comes with a decent level of intrigue. One, the Bulldogs appear to be much better than most thought they would be this season. Two, a key part of the Aggies’ hot start this season has been speedy sophomore receiver Mario Craver, who spent his initial collegiate campaign in Starkville before packing up and portaling himself to College Station.</p>
<p>Will Craver come up big again to help his new team move to 2-0 in conference play? Or will the Bulldogs make the extra plays they didn’t last week to pull another big upset? Read on for our Mississippi State vs. Texas A&amp;M prediction and best bets, along with the best value odds from <a href="/best-online-sportsbooks/">top sports betting sites</a> such as <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BetOnline</a>.</p>
<h2>Mississippi State vs. Texas A&amp;M Prediction and Best Bets</h2>
<h3>Prediction: Mississippi State to win</h3>
<p>Against Tennessee, many things went wrong for Mississippi State. They gave up two defensive touchdowns, lost multiple key players to injury throughout the game, and quarterback Blake Shapen was sacked five times.</p>
<p>But with one timely stop on defense or better execution inside the five in overtime, the Bulldogs would have been staring at a sensational September.</p>
<p>As it is, the first month of the season went rather well for the Bulldogs. Clearly, this team does not lack confidence and togetherness. How far that will take them remains to be seen given how difficult the rest of the schedule is. But despite giving up two defensive scores, losing important personnel, and Shapen not having his best day, they went toe to toe with one of the better teams in the country once again.</p>
<p>Can they do it away from home? Until they lay an egg, the sensible thing to do is to keep backing them to win.</p>
<p>This week, it doesn’t have anything to do with A&amp;M specifically, even though they did struggle to shut the door on an Auburn team that is not very good.</p>
<p>The Aggies outgained the Tigers 414-177 and had 21 first downs to Auburn’s nine, but Randy Bond missed two field goals, and Marcel Reed threw a pick in the fourth that helped set up the Tigers’ lone touchdown of the day.</p>
<p>Ultimately, it’s more that the gap between the SEC’s best and worst does not appear to be as wide as it sometimes is. After all, Arkansas, who just fired its head coach, nearly won at Ole Miss just a few weeks ago. The expected contenders will likely sit atop the standings in the end, but along the way, things might get very, very weird and wild.</p>
<h3>Mississippi State vs. Texas A&amp;M Best Bets</h3>
<h4>1) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/luckyrebel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fluff Bothwell (MSU) Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Lucky Rebel)</a></h4>
<p>Last week, Auburn was limited to 52 yards rushing on 24 attempts, though five of those are accounted for by sacks of Jackson Arnold, who had only 11 net rushing yards on 15 credited attempts.</p>
<p>While Shapen factors into Mississippi State’s running back, he will not factor in as much vs. Texas A&amp;M as Bothwell, who has cemented himself as RB1 over the last three weeks.</p>
<p>After setting new season highs in each of the previous two weeks against Alcorn State and Northern Illinois, Bothwell set another new season high (and came within 10 yards of a new career high) with 134 yards on a career-high 23 carries with two touchdowns against Tennessee.</p>
<p>All in all, Mississippi State had 51 credited rushing attempts last week, taking the total in the last two games to exactly one hundred.</p>
<p>The ground game will feature frequently at Kyle Field, which means Bothwell should get 15+ carries for the third straight week. And even if he can’t get loose for a 20+ yard run for the fourth straight week, this is still a very reachable target.</p>
<h4>2) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/bovada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brenen Thompson to Record 60+ Receiving Yards (+175 at Bovada)</a></h4>
<p>After not playing another snap following a first-half injury, Thompson was not given an injury designation in Wednesday’s injury report, which indicates he should be a full go for Mississippi State vs. Texas A&amp;M.</p>
<p>If he is, that can only improve the Bulldogs’ chances of giving the Aggies quite a fright. His speed can break the game open, and that kind of threat in the aerial attack can generate opportunities for success on the ground.</p>
<p>Arnold was only 18 of 33 for 125 yards against Texas A&amp;M, so the bar is low for Shapen to do better. But even though he should take some heat from the pass rush, all he needs is a little time to get the ball out to Thompson. If he can, we might get to see the senior make the play he wasn’t able to against Tennessee.</p>
<p>While 60+ carries a lot of value for a total that Thompson can knock out with two or three catches, 40+ yards (-135 at Bovada) and 50+ yards (+110) offer comparatively safer options that still hold good value given Thompson&#8217;s importance.</p>
<h4>3) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mississippi State First Quarter +6 (-115 at BetOnline)</a></h4>
<p>Last week vs. Tennessee, Mississippi State hit the first lick, turning a fumble recovery on a punt return into a quick touchdown a little more than three minutes in. And despite a pick-six by Shapen later in the quarter, the Bulldogs ended the first 15 minutes down only 10-7.</p>
<p>Starting well helped propel Mississippi to the win over Arizona State and put the Bulldogs in a positive position to nearly do it again vs. Tennessee. Look for them to repeat that and get on the good foot against the Gig ‘Em gang.</p>
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