Memphis vs. NC State Picks and Predictions: Gasparilla Bowl
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Dec 18, 2025, 5:15 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Every bowl season there's one I simply can't wait for. It gets me more excited than anything else, and that, my friends, is the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl! Alright, maybe I oversold it a little too much, but hey, two pretty big names are going head to head at Raymond James Stadium as the Memphis Tigers take on the NC State Wolfpack. Who will come out on top? Let's find out with our favorite picks.
Go check out what else I've got on the slate for bowl season, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Memphis Tigers vs. NC State Wolfpack Gasparilla Bowl Insights
Can NC State move the ball without Hollywood Smothers running it down their opponent's throats?
The biggest news surrounding either of these teams is the Tiger's head coach. Ryan Silverfield left to take the vacant job at Arkansas, and defensive backs coach Reggie Howard will be in charge for the bowl game before Charles Huff takes over. Quarterback Brendon Lewis was a bit injured to end the season, but I have not heard of him opting out of this game. If he doesn't go, freshman AJ Hill likely gets the start. He was 13/25 passing against UAB this year with a touchdown and an interception in their loss after Lewis was knocked out of that game.
For the Wolfpack, they will likely miss running back Hollywood Smothers who has entered the transfer portal. Smothers had 160 carries for 939 yards and six rushing touchdowns, leading all backs. NC State is a big banged up otherwise, and may be missing their TE, Justin Joly, who leads the team with 47 catches and seven receiving touchdowns, while ranking second on the team in yards. What can CJ Bailey do offensively without those two on the field?
Matchup Information – Memphis vs. NC State – December 19
- Venue & Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
- Date: Friday, December 19, 2025
- Kick Off: 2:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Memphis vs. NC State Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of December 18, 2025 at 4:30 p.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 slot spins right away. Lucky Rebel offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Memphis +3.5 (-112)
- NC State -3.5 (-108)
Moneyline
- Memphis +143
- NC State -174
Total
- Over 57 (-110)
- Under 57 (-110)
Memphis vs. NC State Gasparilla Bowl Picks and Predictions
Memphis can score even if Brendon Lewis doesn't take the field
Memphis vs. NC State Prediction: NC State Wins, Memphis Covers, Over 57
Best Bet: Memphis/NC State Over 57 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Even if Smothers, Joly and Lewis don't play, both defenses suck. The offenses are capable of getting up and down, and players will be eager to show their stuff, using this matchup as a tryout for next year (whether it be for their current team or someone in the portal).
The Wolfpack defense is the least scary pack of wolves I've ever witnessed. They are north of 100 (bottom 35) in points per game allowed, while ranking bottom 10 in yards allowed. To make matters even more grim defensively, they are sixth worst in third down conversions allowed, and outside the top 60 in red zone scoring percentage. Offensively, they like to throw it, aren't half bad at doing so, and jump to top 50 in both points per play and third down conversions.
How about the Tigers? Their offense is much more ferocious, and even if the freshman gets the start, they should be fine against that defense I just described. The Tigers are top 26 in yards per carry anyways, which should take some pressure off of whomever gets the start. As for the defensive side of the ball, Memphis isn't that bad against the run, but they are No. 89 in yards per pass allowed, No. 88 in opponent third down conversion rate, and rank bottom 20 in sacks, failing to get to the quarterback that often.
It's the perfect scenario for both offenses to thrive, giving us an entertaining bowl game Friday afternoon. Memphis has gone over in four of their last five, and both teams are 7-5 to the over this season. The Wolfpack have scored 30+ points in 7/12 games this year, while the Tigers have done so in 8/12, scoring 24, 27 and 28 on three separate occasions as well.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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