California vs. Hawaii Picks and Predictions: Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Tue Dec 23, 2025, 4:45 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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A Christmas Eve tradition like no other, the Hawaii Bowl. I'll probably be dual screening this game with Christmas Vacation on the main as I wait for Santa to squeeze his fat white you know what down my chimney. I think I'm on the nice list… Regardless, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors take on the California Golden Bears on the Island, and our experts have their picks.
Best Bet: California/Hawaii Over 51 (-112) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Go check out what else I've got on the slate for bowl season, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
California Golden Bears vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Hawaii Bowl Insights
Micah Alejado lead the Rainbow Warriors to their first eight win season since 2019
Things seem to indicate that stud freshman, and native Hawaiian, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is staying with the Golden Bears next season, so he will likely suit up this game. He might as well, considering it is much easier for plenty of family to see him as he grew up in Ewa Beach. Even without head coach Justin Wilcox, offensive coordinator Nick Rolovich will run the show before Tosh Lupoi takes over next season. Along with his HC, the quarterback may also be missing his third receiving option and top tight end.
Hawaii has a shorter list of injuries, but they may be missing Jackson Harris who is hitting the portal. He led the team in receiving yards and touchdowns, catching 49 passes for 963 yards and 12 touchdowns. That is a big hit the Rainbow Warriors offense and a lot of production to make up. Can they find a way to pick up the slack at home?
Matchup Information – California vs. Hawaii – December 24
- Venue & Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletic Complex (Honolulu, HI)
- Date: Wednesday, December 24, 2025
- Kick Off: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
California vs. Hawaii Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of December 23, 2025 at 4:16 p.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 slot spins right away. Lucky Rebel offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- California +1.5 (-111)
- Hawaii -1.5 (-109)
Moneyline
- California -101
- Hawaii -120
Total
- Over 51 (-112)
- Under 51 (-108)
I normally have a principle when going to the Island. We either back Hawaii or we back points, or we leave things alone. Now, I'm giving myself a little bit of leeway since this isn't a standard "Late Night 11:59 eastern" kick off, as I will only be following one of my two personal rules in this contest.
California vs. Hawaii Hawaii Bowl Picks and Predictions
Can California find a way to win on the Island in the Hawaii Bowl?
California vs. Hawaii Prediction: California Wins Outright, Over 51
Best Bet: California/Hawaii Over 51 (-112) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I am waiting as there is heavy steam coming in on the under. This line opened at 54.5 and is all the way down to 50.5 at some books. Let's see how low it will go. California had some momentum at the end of the year with big wins over Louisville and SMU to ruin their ACC Championship hopes. However they also lost to Stanford.
The Golden Bears have the worst rushing attack in all of college football, ranking dead last in yards per rush at just 2.3 per carry, and only 67.8 per game. But we know this Cal QB can sling the pill and he faces a weak secondary. Hawaii is north of 80 in opponent interceptions thrown, passing yards per game and yards per pass allowed. I see the Hawaiian kid having a career day back on the island.
Hawaii can't run the ball either, and both are top 10 in pass play percentage, so you know they are just going to be airing it out. Plenty of incompletions (clock stops) and big plays as well. California's secondary is decent, but they are north of 100 in getting to the quarterback and No. 88 in interceptions forced. So let's back some points and stick to our principles.
However…
California. As dogs. With a Hawaiian native at QB. Come on now… The script writes itself.
I'll be on the Golden Bears outright as well but like the over, I'll wait as close to kick as I can to ensure the best number. Hawaii has not been impressive. Sure you can argue they beat Stanford who took down California. Those games were in different timeframes. The Rainbow Warriors' best win is against San Diego State at home, who also beat Cal, but two ranked wins for the Golden Bears to end the season gives me faith in them getting the job done.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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