#17 Arizona vs. SMU Picks and Predictions: Holiday Bowl Bets
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Fri Jan 02, 2026, 2:49 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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A former PAC-12 representative and a former member of the AAC walk into the Holiday Bowl together tonight in San Diego. The No. 17 Arizona Wildcats are now a member of the Big 12, and they take on the SMU Mustangs, who belong to the ACC. SMU was just one win away from competing in the conference championship (and likely the College Football Playoff), but instead, they lost to California to end their season and go unranked into this bowl game. Can they turn things around and end the season with a win? Or do the Wildcats take the victory and finish on a six game winning streak? Let's find out with our favorite picks below.
Best Bet: SMU ML (-112) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Go check out what else I've got on the slate for bowl season, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
#17 Arizona Wildcats vs. SMU Mustangs Holiday Bowl Insights
Noah Fifita is looking to lead Arizona to their second 10 win season as the starter
The Wildcats started off 3-0, but then went 1-3 to start conference play. However, they flipped a switch and rattled off five straight wins, including two over ranked opponents on the road to finish 9-3. Now the Wildcats are looking for Noah Fifita's second season with double digit wins. Does the junior have what it takes to keep the offense rolling?
Like I said, had SMU beaten California in their season finale, they would've had a spot in the ACC Championship against Virginia. Had they won that hypothetical matchup, the Mustangs would've been playing in their second straight College Football Playoff. Shoulda, woulda, coulda, because the Ponies lost and now end their season in the Holiday Bowl. Kevin Jennings looks to play in this game, which is why the line has flipped, making SMU a short favorite in this contest.
Matchup Information – Arizona vs. SMU – January 2
- Venue & Location: Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego, CA)
- Date: Friday, January 2, 2025
- Kick Off: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX
Arizona vs. SMU Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of January 2, 2025 at 2:14 p.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 slot spins right away. Lucky Rebel offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Arizona +1 (-113)
- SMU -1 (-107)
Moneyline
- Arizona -108
- SMU -112
Total
- Over 52 (-109)
- Under 52 (-111)
Sure Arizona had five wins to end the year, but who did they beat? A Colorado team that finished with one Big 12 win, and the Jayhawks and Bears who both went 3-6 and 5-7 overall. I'll give them their two ranked road wins over No. 25 Cincinnati and No. 20 Arizona State, but the Bearcats were falling apart, and the Sun Devils certainly aren't the team they were last year.
#17 Arizona vs. SMU Holiday Bowl Picks and Predictions
Kevin Jennings and SMU take on the Arizona Wildcats in the Holiday Bowl tonight
Arizona vs. SMU Prediction: SMU Wins and Covers, Over 52
Best Bet: SMU ML (-112) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I'll be backing SMU to come motivated in this game. Neither team is dealing with major opt outs or injuries, so we should be getting the best of the best. I worry about Arizona's strength of schedule. They only played four teams that won eight games in the regular season, and one of those teams was Hawaii.
SMU's only ranked opponent was Miami, who they beat in overtime at home. They were just four points away from going 8-0 in ACC play, losing to two Big 12 teams in non conference play by a combined two touchdowns as well. Point being, SMU competed in every game this year. I have much more faith in their offense and defense in this Holiday Bowl out west.
The Mustangs move the ball offensively, ranking top 25 in both points and yards per play, while ranking top 15 in yards per carry and points per play allowed on defense. I expect the Arizona offense to have some trouble moving the ball in chunks. The Wildcats are outside the top 65 in third down conversions and are bottom 20 in red zone scoring percentage. Give me the ACC over the Big 12 in this bowl game.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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