This Rose Bowl matchup feels surreal, and it might be the most fascinating game of the entire second round. No. 1 Indiana, the feel good story of the season, faces No. 9 Alabama, a program still proving it can thrive in a post Nick Saban era. An undefeated Hoosiers team with a Heisman winning quarterback now lays seven points against a battle tested Crimson Tide squad that has seen every possible test. Strength of schedule, recent momentum, and emotional peaks all collide here. Is Indiana truly untouchable, or is Alabama being undervalued?
#9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana: Rose Bowl Odds & Insights | January 1, 2026
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Wed Dec 31, 2025, 2:41 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaaf
FINAL
Alabama Crimson Tide
3
Indiana Hoosiers
38
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Bowl Games Results: 3-3 (-1.23u)
2025 Season Record: 64-58-2 (+11.39u)
#9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana Odds
Can Ty Simpson lead the Crimson Tide to another playoff victory?
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Spread
- Alabama: +7 (-114)
- Indiana: -7 (-106)
Moneyline
- Alabama: +188
- Indiana: -235
Total
- Over: 48.0 (-111)
- Under: 48.0 (-109)
#9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana – January 1
Game of the week, according to myself, as No. 9 Alabama takes on No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl. A matchup I do not think any of us saw coming four years ago, but here we are, and it should be an unbelievable showdown. The Hoosiers enter as a seven-point favorite against the Crimson Tide. The question of the week is simple, is seven too many points, or is Indiana going to destroy Alabama? I have a lot of thoughts, so let us dive into my favorite matchup of the week.
Caught in a Trap
I am having a hard time not falling for Alabama with the points in this matchup. That is not to say I do not believe Indiana is legit, but what has transpired over the last year feels like something that eventually has to come back down to earth. The Hoosiers have turned their entire program around in under two years, went undefeated this season, won the Big Ten Championship, and their quarterback won the Heisman Trophy. I would argue their last month has been spent living on cloud nine, and they may be due for a letdown.
Indiana's victory over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship was impressive, but the Buckeyes were coming off an emotional win over Michigan on the road the week prior. This season, Ohio State was focused on 2 things, beating Michigan for the first time since 2019 and winning another national championship. Excluding the conference title game, Indiana's biggest wins include a 20-15 win at Iowa, a 30-20 win at Oregon, and their late comeback victory at Penn State. Alabama has endured a much tougher schedule than what I just rattled off.
Strength in Schedule
The Crimson Tide still own the biggest win in college football this season, beating Georgia 24-21 on the road in Week 4. After that, they defeated then No. 16 Vanderbilt, No. 14 Missouri on the road, No. 11 Tennessee, South Carolina on the road, and LSU. They later fell to Oklahoma at home, then won out. Much of the focus has been on their season opening loss to FSU, which was embarrassing, but this team has turned things around and improved drastically since. Their loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship felt inevitable, as the Bulldogs were out for revenge.
Alabama's 17-point comeback win in Norman in round one was emotional, but they will not be able to afford a slow start against this Hoosier squad. The defense will need to be nearly perfect to slow down an explosive Indiana offense that has averaged nearly 40 points and over 455 yards per game this season. Indiana has also converted over 54% of its third downs. On the other side, the Crimson Tide defense has allowed under 20 points and under 310 yards per game.
This should easily be one of the best games of the second round, especially with two coaches in their second season at their respective schools having a chance to make a massive statement. I would argue Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer needs this win more, as he continues trying to fill the massive shoes left behind by Nick Saban. Can the Crimson Tide win without Saban? We will find out on Thursday.
Best Bet: Alabama +7 (-114) odds via Lucky Rebel
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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