2025 College Football National Champion Odds Update: Where is the Value? | December 21, 2025

With the first round of the College Football Playoffs coming to an end, it is a good time to check in on where the current odds to win the National Championship sit. Ohio State and Indiana are at the top of the board with prices under four to one. With the first round just wrapping up last night, the last thing I want to do, is take chalk. When I am asked if I had a free $100 to bet on one of these eight teams, where would I put my money? I want value. Some will argue the current prices on the Buckeyes and Hoosiers are good value. I disagree.

Where is the value?

That said, as the rounds go on, I will keep an eye on those prices. Last year, heading into the final four, I took Ohio State to win it all at -120. Why? I knew they were the best team in the country, and I knew if I grabbed them before playing Texas, I was essentially paying for their moneyline against Texas and then Notre Dame. I was canceling out the spread across two games. I do not mind paying juice when there is a clear path. I paid -180 for the Dodgers to win the World Series. Do not be scared of the juice.

The Tide?

Back to the original question, where is that $100 free bet. At 18 to one, I do not hate Alabama. I have all the respect in the world for the 2025 Hoosiers, but I would not be shocked if the Crimson Tide kept it close against them on New Years Day. Alabama has been tested time and time again this season. Yes, they were embarrassed in the SEC Championship. However, I could argue Ohio State was coming off their Super Bowl win over Michigan and was not fully focused in the Big Ten Championship. I do not think the Crimson Tide should have the second highest odds to win it all, given the path in front of them.

If Alabama beats Indiana, they would then face either Texas Tech or Oregon. I am not a firm believer in the Red Raiders, I need to see it first. Same goes for the Ducks. If the Tide get past either of those teams, they are in the National Championship game, and at that point you can hedge if needed. I am already holding a ten to one preseason ticket on Alabama, so I will not be doubling down.

Both longshots?

On the other side of the bracket, I almost want to get involved with Ole Miss, and I already have. I grabbed them +7 in the next round against Georgia. I will have a full game write up coming, but this sets up as a massive revenge spot for the Rebels, who should have beaten the Bulldogs on the road back in October. If Ole Miss pulls that off, I would worry if they could go toe-to-toe with Ohio State, who rightfully sits as the odds leader to win it all. How long can the Rebels ride the motivation of sticking it to Lane?

Right now, the only teams truly grabbing me to win it all are, shockingly, the two teams at the bottom of the odds board. As for Georgia, Oregon, Texas Tech, and Miami, I am out for now. I do not trust Georgia at five to one, it feels like they have coasted all season, though I will continue to monitor them. Oregon and Texas Tech, prove it to me. Miami, please. For now, give me Hotty Toddy and the Tide.