Happy Monday, everyone! Tonight's 11-game NBA slate gives us plenty to sift through, with value scattered throughout the prop market. I've got four plays lined up for the evening, so let's dive into my NBA prop bets for Monday, December 29.
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NBA Prop Bets for Monday, December 29
Tim Hardaway Jr Under 3.5 3-Pointers (-120)
Let's kick off Monday's festivities down in South Beach, where the Heat host the Nuggets.
There's been a noticeable surge in Tim Hardaway Jr.'s three-point prop, and frankly, it's puzzling. Hardaway is averaging just 2.7 made threes per game on the season and 3.0 per game in December, yet he's facing one of the toughest perimeter defenses in the league and his prop sits at 3.5.
Miami ranks fourth in opponent three-point percentage allowed at 34.6%. More broadly, the Heat feature an elite defense, sitting third in points allowed per 100 possessions and fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed.
Hardaway has gone over this number in three of his last four games, but outside of that brief spike in usage, there's been little evidence of consistent four-plus three-point upside. I'm willing to sell high on Hardaway in general, and especially so against one of the best defenses in the NBA.
Royce O'Neale Under 5.5 Rebounds (-120)
Royce O'Neale and the Phoenix Suns head to the nation's capital to take on the struggling Washington Wizards.
The 18–13 Suns are double-digit favorites against the 7–23 Wizards, and because of that gap, we're seeing some inflation across Phoenix player props – including O'Neale's rebounds.
On the season, O'Neale is averaging five rebounds per game, and that number has dipped to 4.4 per contest in December. He's stayed under 5.5 rebounds in eight of his last 10 games this month. Naturally, given how poor Washington has been, the assumption is that a high volume of missed shots will lead to more rebounding opportunities for a player like O'Neale.
While that certainly could be the case, it doesn't justify betting into a worse number. This still feels like a slight overadjustment for a player who hasn't consistently dominated the glass this season.
Pascal Siakam Over 5.5 Rebounds (+107)
Speaking of rebounds, let's keep our next wager in that same category, but look to the over this time. I'm backing Pascal Siakam to grab at least six boards against the Houston Rockets on Monday night.
This won't be an easy matchup. The Rockets lead the NBA in rebounding percentage at 55.7%, while the Pacers rank 27th at 47.9%.
That said, this sets up as a buy-low spot on Siakam. He's averaging 6.8 rebounds per game on the season, and even with a slight dip in December, he's still pulling down six per contest. He's also gone over 6.5 rebounds in seven of 12 games this month.
Even against an elite rebounding team like Houston, there will be missed shots. With Indiana at a disadvantage on the glass, Siakam will need to be active crashing the boards more than usual to help offset that gap.
Add in the plus-money price, and this play is worth the cost of admission.
Toumani Camara Under 2.5 3-Pointers (-121)
Our fourth and final play brings us to a familiar prop bet – fading Toumani Camara's production from beyond the arc.
Camara has steadily increased his three-point output each month this season. He averaged 1.7 made threes per game in October, bumped that up to 2.5 in November, and is now sitting at 2.8 per game in December.
While that progression is encouraging for both Camara and the Blazers, there are bound to be some bumps along the way. This feels like a prime spot for one of those hiccups, as Portland draws one of the league's best perimeter defenses in the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas ranks first in opponent three-point percentage allowed at 33.3% and second in shot rate allowed from beyond the arc at 34.4%.
Laying a price in the -120 range is reasonable here for a player of Camara's caliber, especially in what profiles as a difficult matchup.
Best Bets:
NBA Record: 78-55-1 (+15.71 units)
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