Win or Go Home: Expert Picks in the MLB Today
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Thu Oct 01, 2026, 11:09 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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-1.5
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7.5
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You've found my Braves vs. Phillies prediction and MLB expert pick for Thursday, Oct. 1! We have one game left on the Wild Card slate, and it's a win-or-go-home Game 3 between Philadelphia and Atlanta.
The Phillies won in absolutely ridiculous fashion Wednesday, but now both teams have their seasons on the line at Truist Park. Philadelphia is expected to turn to Aaron Nola, while Atlanta appears set to use an opener before likely handing the ball to Grant Holmes in bulk relief.
Before we dive into the best MLB pick today, check out our MLB Picks Page and MLB Odds Page.
Braves vs. Phillies Expert Pick for Thursday (10/1)
Wednesday's game was playoff baseball at its absolute best.
The Braves took the lead after Bryce Harper dropped a fly ball in the outfield. It immediately gave me Aaron Judge World Series flashbacks. Then Philadelphia answered with Kyle Schwarber and Harper hitting back-to-back home runs in the eighth inning to tie the game.
Then came extra innings.
Alec Bohm delivered the deciding blow with an opposite-field home run, his first opposite-field homer since the beginning of the season. That is the kind of sequence that makes October baseball completely insane. One dropped fly ball, two monster home runs, and then an Alec Bohm oppo taco to swing the entire series.
Now we get Game 3 with both teams staring at the end of their season.
Phillies vs. Braves Game Information
- Location: Truist Park; Atlanta, Georgia
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026
- First pitch: 8:15 PM ET
- TV: NBC/Peacock
Phillies vs. Braves Odds for Oct. 1
Odds via BetOnline.ag, an industry leader in the sports betting world:
- Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+161)
- Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-107)
- Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-184)
- Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-103)
- Over/Under 7.5 (+100, -120)
Phillies vs. Braves Prediction Today
Reports indicate Aaron Nola will start for Philadelphia, while Atlanta will likely go with an opener before turning things over to Grant Holmes for the bulk of the innings. It also sounds like Zack Wheeler could be available in some capacity. That is obviously not something Atlanta hitters want to hear in an elimination game.
But my favorite bet here is not a side. I'm taking the over.
Best Bet: Phillies vs. Braves Over 7.5 (+100) | BetOnline.ag
The postseason can be incredibly difficult to bet. Everyone knows the stakes are massive. Everyone knows the bullpens are shorter, managers are quicker with the hook, and every run feels like it might decide an entire season.
So, honestly, if you see a number that looks even remotely playable, you take a shot. And I think Over 7.5 at even money is a really good price.
Aaron Nola has given up 37 home runs this season, and he is setting a career high in fly-ball rate. That is music to my ears when I'm looking to bet a total over. In an elimination game, a couple of elevated fastballs or one early mistake can change the entire scoring environment.
Meanwhile, Holmes has been solid on the surface, and I generally like him as a pitcher. He also has some pretty cool hair, which certainly doesn't hurt. But the underlying numbers suggest he has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball.
Holmes owns a shiny 3.44 ERA, but Baseball Savant puts his expected ERA at 5.05. He ranks in just the 18th percentile in expected batting average and has allowed his fair share of barrels.
Both bullpens are also gassed after the first two games. That is a huge part of this handicap. Even if the starters are sharp early, we could be looking at tired relievers in the middle innings and late in the game.
This total is only 7.5, and BetOnline is giving us plus money on the over. I think there are enough paths to eight runs here. Give me Phillies vs. Braves over 7.5 runs, and let's have some mild fireworks in a winner-take-all game.
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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