Reds vs Marlins: Odds & Predictions | April 21, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Mon Apr 21, 2025, 1:44 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Reds vs Marlins: The Reds are in another prime spot to rack up runs, and their offense has been on fire lately. With Max Meyer on the mound, the numbers point to another potential explosion. Here is why backing the Reds to go over 1.5 runs in the first five innings makes perfect sense today.
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Last Month Betting MLB: 78-110-2 (+9.1u)
Last week Betting MLB: 26-36 (+2.45u)
Reds vs Marlins Odds
Can the Reds keep their hot bats alive in Miami?
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Runline
Reds: -1.5 (+140)
Marlins: +1.5 (-140)
Total
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
Moneyline
Reds: -117
Marlins: +106
Reds vs Marlins Best Bet
Are we crazy? Yes, we are.
However, yesterday's offensive performance has no bearing on today's game. The Cincinnati Reds are in another prime spot to explode. If this prop were not set at 1.5, I would have stayed away, but given how well the Reds have been playing, over 1.5 runs in the first five innings feels like a gift, regardless of the outcome.
Since April 13th, excluding Sunday's explosive 24-run game, the Reds' wRC+ is 134, ranking third in the majors, with a wOBA of .377 (second best), first in walk rate (14.1%), second in OPS (.852), and first in medium contact. Cincinnati has been averaging over three runs in the first five innings all season long. On the road, they are scoring over 3.5 runs per game.
Today, they face Max Meyer, who allows the third most hard contact, has the worst average hitter matchup ISO, and the second-worst average hitter matchup wOBA. Meyer has allowed over this prop in three of his four outings this season. On top of that, he has allowed five or more hits in three of his four starts in 2025. Despite a 2.63 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, his BABIP is above average, but hitters are due to break through.
Today, the Reds have the highest average hitter matchup rating, with a lineup that features three elite-rated hitters and five others graded as great, according to Batters-Box.com. Elite-rated hitters record a hit 63.27% of the time, go over 1.5 bases 51% of the time, and hit a home run 22% of the time, based on a 49-hitter sample. Great-rated hitters record a hit 73% of the time, go over 1.5 bases 58% of the time, and hit a home run 26% of the time, based on a 19-hitter sample.
Given the price and the number, I have to be on this prop. Pay the juice and hope the Reds still have plenty of juice left after yesterday's big performance.
Best Bet:Reds First Five Team Total Over 1.5 (-150) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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