Red Sox vs. Brewers: Odds & Predictions | May 27, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Tue May 27, 2025, 4:25 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Red Sox vs. Brewers: Rafael Devers may not be the easiest player to back, but the value on his bases prop is undeniable tonight. He enters in a slump but draws a high matchup rating and a favorable pitch profile against a struggling arm. Sometimes the best plays are uncomfortable ones—this looks like one of them.
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Last Month: 97-160 (+8.1u)
Last Week: 23-33 (+4.46u)
Red Sox vs. Brewers Best Bet
Can Rafael Devers and the Red Sox take care of business against Aaron Civale
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A man I never seem to catch at the right time is back on my card tonight—Mr. Rafael Devers' bases, and I feel confident in it. The Red Sox designated hitter enters on a three-game hitless streak, but holds the fourth-highest rating on Batters-Box.com today.
In 134 elite-rated matchups, Devers records a hit 68% of the time, two hits 35% of the time, and goes over this prop 48% of the time. Not the flashiest hit rate on the prop, but at +140, that is strong value.
The Brewers send Aaron Civale to the mound, who enters with poorly rated average hitter matchup ISO and ground ball percentage. In his first two starts of the season, Civale has allowed five extra-base hits in just seven innings. He leans heavily on his cutter, throwing it 40% of the time. Devers, so far this year, owns a .333 average, .556 slugging percentage, and .489 wOBA against cutters, with a nearly 70% hard contact rate on the pitch.
Even though I rarely seem to time it right with Devers, this feels like the right spot. With strong splits and a shaky starter, the Red Sox slugger is due for a bounce-back.
Best Bet: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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