Rays vs Diamondbacks: Odds & Predictions | April 22, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Tue Apr 22, 2025, 12:49 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Rays vs Diamondbacks: Zack Littell is stepping into a tough spot on Tuesday, and the numbers are not exactly in his favor. With a hittable arsenal and a matchup against a hot Diamondbacks lineup, this one sets up well for a player prop angle. Here is why backing Littell to allow hits makes the most sense in this spot.
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Last Month Betting MLB: 80-118-2 (+6.65u)
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Rays vs Diamondbacks Odds
How will Corbin Carroll and the Diamondbacks perform against Rays starter Zack Littell?
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Runline
Rays: +1.5 (-148)
Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+128)
Total
Over: 9 (-110)
Under: 9 (-110)
Moneyline
Rays: +140
Diamondbacks: -155
Rays vs Diamondbacks Best Bet
Forget the sides, forget the total—we are riding with a player prop in this matchup. Rays starter Zack Littell over 5.5 hits allowed. The 29-year-old right-hander enters the day with the seventh worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com. He faces two elite-rated Diamondbacks, one above the league strikeout rate and three above the league ground ball rate. Through four starts, he holds a 5.48 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. A primarily breaking ball pitcher, Littell does not have a single redeeming pitch—three of his four offerings are either below league value or barely above it.
Littell has allowed at least five hits in each of his last three outings and is averaging 5.75 hits allowed this season. On the road last season, he posted a 4.54 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP, with opposing hitters batting .304 against him. He was allowing 6.2 hits per game away from home in 2024.
Arizona ranks top 10 in hits per game, averaging 8.41 overall and over nine at home. They match up very well against Littell, with four hitters graded either elite or great. The lineup as a whole is just a decimal away from being graded as elite.
With Littell carrying a low average hitter matchup strikeout percentage and a middling ground ball percentage—plus giving up 35 percent hard contact—the Diamondbacks should be able to square him up and stack the hit column.
Best Bet:Zack Littell Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110) odds via BetOnline
Hitter Prop: Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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