Rays vs. Astros: Odds & Predictions | May 29, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Mon Jun 02, 2025, 1:47 am ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
mlb
Rays vs. Astros: Jonathan Aranda is not just a great name—he has a great matchup tonight. The Rays' young hitter has been on a tear, and he now faces one of the weakest-rated starters on the slate. With elite metrics and favorable trends, there is value worth chasing.
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Last Month: 95-158 (+8.85u)
Last Week: 21-36 (-0.15u)
Rays vs. Astros Odds
Will Jonathan Aranda bring the fireworks to Houston?
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Run Line
Rays: +1.5 (-210)
Astros: -1.5 (+180)
Total
Over: 8 (-125)
Under: 8 (+105)
Moneyline
Rays: +104
Astros: -115
Rays vs. Astros Best Bet
Heading down to Houston, where a certain Ray has my attention—not only for his incredible name, but also for his matchup.
Mr. Jonathan Aranda enters today with an Elite rating on Batters-Box. It is a very small sample size on his elite trends—only 14 elite ratings—but he records a hit 64% of the time, hits a home run 28% of the time, goes over this prop 35% of the time (gross, I know), and goes over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI 57% of the time. Do I think taking his HRR prop is a great look? Of course. However, I am chasing the value here.
The Rays' young stud takes on Astros starter Ryan Gusto, who owns the second-worst pitcher rating on the day. He has a poorly rated matchup in terms of wOBA, ISO, and ground ball percentage. At home this season, he carries a 5.46 ERA and a .287 opponent batting average. His pitch arsenal is mediocre at best, with four of his five pitches graded below league average on FanGraphs.
Aranda has been seeing the ball extremely well over the last few games, carrying a four-game hitting streak. During that span, he has totaled 11 bases.
At a price of +145, I believe we are getting strong value in a matchup with plenty of data pointing toward a successful outing for Aranda.
Best Bet: Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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