Rays vs. Red Sox: MLB Player Props with Value | June 9, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Mon Jun 09, 2025, 2:38 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Rays vs. Red Sox: Jonathan Aranda has been quietly crushing right-handed pitching all season, and tonight he draws a juicy matchup in Boston. With power, consistency, and a strong pitch-by-pitch edge over Brayan Bello, all signs point to a breakout spot. Time to ride with the Rays first baseman in this one.
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Last Month: 82-142 (+7.8u)
Last Week: 8-38 (-15.58u)
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds – June 9
Will Jonathan Aranda bring the fireworks to Boston?
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Run Line
Rays: +1.5 (-210)
Red Sox: -1.5 (+180)
Total
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
Moneyline
Rays: -101
Red Sox: -109
Rays vs. Red Sox Best Bet
Tonight in Boston, we are eying Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda, who has been seeing the ball as well as anyone this season. He is hitting .320 with seven home runs and a .896 OPS. The 27-year-old has been stronger at home, but still carries a .748 OPS on the road. Against right-handed pitching, though, he shines—posting a .333 average, .540 SLG, and .949 OPS.
He enters tonight with the third-best matchup rating in this game, per Batters-Box. When holding an elite rating, Aranda brings some encouraging trends. It is a small sample, but in 16 elite-rated matchups, he records a hit 68% of the time, homers 25% of the time, and goes over this prop 37% of the time. He has a better Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI trend, but I am not paying -130 or -140 for him. I know my rule is to play up to -130 for anything outside a simple hit prop, but after going 3-for-13 over his last four games, Aranda feels due for a big one.
That feels even more likely given how Brayan Bello has pitched at home. He owns a 4.11 ERA and a .286 opponent batting average in Boston. The 26-year-old righty ranks poorly in matchup metrics like wOBA, ISO, and hard contact allowed. All four of his pitches are performing below league average. His best pitch, the slider, carries a -0.10 value—still below average—and Aranda handles it with ease. Against sliders this season, Aranda owns a run value of 3, a .333 average, .638 xSLG, and .390 wOBA, per Baseball Savant. He also hits the rest of Bello's arsenal very well.
This is a great spot for Aranda. I will happily ride with his total bases prop instead of paying up for HRR, especially with how well he matches up against all four of Bello's pitches and how shaky Bello has been at home.
Best Bet: Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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