Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | April 2, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Wed Apr 02, 2025, 1:36 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Today's matchup features two young, promising pitchers—Paul Skenes of the Pirates and Ryan Pepiot of the Rays—both of whom are coming off impressive starts to begin the season. With both teams struggling to score early in games, this sets up as a favorable spot for the pitchers to dominate through the first three innings. Expect a tight and competitive duel as both starters look to silence opposing lineups early on.
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Pirates vs Rays Odds
Can Ryan Pepiot replicate his Opening Day performance against the Pirates?
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Runline
Pirates: -1.5 (+159)
Rays: +1.5 (-179)
Total
Over: 7 (+100)
Under: 7 (-120)
Moneyline
Pirates: -107
Rays: -103
Pirates vs Rays Best Bet
This is one of the wildest plays I have ever liked—taking the total runs under for the first three innings. This is a first for me, and I am extremely excited about it.
Both the Rays and Pirates have their top arms on the mound today: Paul Skenes for the Pirates and Ryan Pepiot for the Rays. Each pitcher is facing lineups that lack elite hitters and feature nine batters who strike out at a rate above the league average. Skenes is coming off a dominant Opening Day performance against the Marlins, where he threw 5.1 innings, allowing two runs while striking out seven. Pepiot also had a strong outing against the Rockies on Friday, throwing six innings, allowing just one run, and recording eight strikeouts.
Both teams were among the bottom five in first-five inning scoring last season and have not had the best success to start this season. This looks like a favorable matchup for these two starters, who should have a lot of success getting through the lineup once. Will this be intense? Yes. But when Skenes is on, he allows under two earned runs 56% of the time, based on a 16-game sample size. That trend has held through each of his starts. I believe the first time through the order should be solid for both of these pitchers. While there is not a lot of data on Pepiot, I will trust the numbers available on Batters-Box.com.
Let us get sweaty!
Best Bet: First Three Innings Under 1.5 (+105 at BetOnline)
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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