Pirates vs. Diamondbacks: Odds & Predictions | May 28, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Wed May 28, 2025, 3:19 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Pirates vs. Diamondbacks: Oneil Cruz headlines the board today as the lone elite-rated hitter in this NL matchup, and the spot could not be better. He faces Zac Gallen, who has been getting hit hard at home. After a quiet night at the plate, this is a prime bounce-back opportunity for the Pirates slugger.
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Last Month: 96-160 (+8.23u)
Last Week: 19-33 (-0.65u)
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds
What are the odds we will witness a harder hit ball this afternoon from Mr. Oneil Cruz?
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Run Line
Pirates: +1.5 (-188)
Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+165)
Total
Over: 7.5 (-104)
Under: 7.5 (-116)
Moneyline
Pirates: +121
Diamondbacks: -133
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Best Bet
The Cruz Missile, who just hit the hardest ball ever tracked by Statcast on Sunday, finds himself atop today's matchup ratings on Batters-Box. His elite trends are not the flashiest stats of all time, but they are worth noting. In 25 elite-rated road games, he records two hits 36% of the time and clears this prop in just 44% of them.
However, after going 0-for-5 last night, Cruz draws a favorable matchup against Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen. The right-hander is allowing nearly 42% hard contact to opposing hitters. Through seven home starts this season, Gallen holds a 6.03 ERA, a .272 opponent batting average, and is giving up 5.71 hits per game. On top of that, over 11 starts, he is surrendering 2.09 extra-base hits per outing.
Gallen throws his fastball nearly 50% of the time, and FanGraphs grades it as a below-average pitch. In fact, 78% of Gallen's arsenal ranks below league average. That works in our favor—Cruz has been mashing the heater this season. According to Baseball Savant, Cruz owns a .333 xBA, .811 xSLG, .534 xwOBA, and a 74% hard-hit rate against fastballs. He has been assigned a run value of three against the pitch.
With all that said, this is a great spot to back the Pirates big man. We are getting solid value at +125—sprinkle on the home run for some extra fun. Happy Wednesday!
Best Bet: Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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