Orioles vs Nationals: Odds & Predictions | April 24, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Thu Apr 24, 2025, 11:44 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Orioles vs Nationals: Tyler O'Neill has been ice cold in April, but there is value in betting on the bounce back. The matchup, the data, and the context all point toward a turnaround. Let us dig in and make the case for why today is the day.
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Last Month Betting MLB: 87-125-2 (+8.63u)
Last week Betting MLB: 23-32 (+1.55u)
Orioles vs Nationals Odds
Can Orioles outfielder, Tyler O'Neill snap his cold streak with an explosive night in DC?
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Runline
Orioles: +1.5 (-195)
Nationals: -1.5 (+170)
Total
Over: 8.5 (-112)
Under: 8.5 (-108)
Moneyline
Orioles: +104
Nationals: -115
Orioles vs Nationals Best Bet
It is time to back a guy who is in a bit of a slump—Orioles outfielder Tyler O'Neill. He is batting a cool, crisp .118 in April, with only six hits this month. His hit prop is priced at $1.45 today, and I believe that number is simply too low to pass up for a player due for a turnaround. O'Neill owns an elite rating on Batters-Box.com and matches up very well against Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore.
In 53 elite-rated games, O'Neill records a hit 64% of the time. In 19 elite-rated road games, he records a hit 63% of the time. He also hits a home run 20.75% of the time. Did I sprinkle? Of course.
O'Neill owns a career .262 average with a .891 OPS and a 144 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Gore has a below-average hitter matchup rating in ISO and hard contact, surrendering nearly 37% hard contact to opposing batters.
Gore throws fastballs 54% of the time. I am a sucker for betting on a guy to get a hit off a pitcher who leans on the heater. Despite O'Neill batting a putrid .095 against fastballs this season (a 100-pitch sample), he is a career .263 hitter with an .815 OPS and a 132 wRC+ against fastballs. His 2024 numbers mirrored that career profile, so this is just a slow start in 2025.
With nice weather in our nation's capital, this is a great day to snap a two-game hitless streak and get back to crushing baseballs. Pay the juice on the hit. Sprinkle the home run. O'Neill is good for it.
Best Bet: Tyler O'Neill 1+ Hit (-145) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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