Hello and happy Ryan O'Hearn Day!
The Orioles outfielder enters today with a strong rating on Batters-Box and some encouraging trends. In 53 great-rated matchups, he records a hit 64% of the time, hits a single 54% of the time, and has gone over this prop in 54% of those games. The 31-year-old leftie has cashed this prop in seven of his last 10 great ratings.
While he has only recorded four hits over the last seven days and is batting .205, he still owns a .500 slugging percentage and .750 OPS. He is due for a bounce back, and tonight feels like the right time for it.
O'Hearn will face Rays starter Taj Bradley, who has allowed a high volume of hard contact and has struggled throughout the season. Bradley enters with poor matchup ratings in both ISO and hard contact, giving up nearly 42% hard contact overall.
Left-handed hitters are batting .249 with a .440 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA against him at Steinbrenner Field. His best pitch is the curveball (15% usage), and O'Hearn has crushed that offering this season—batting .308 with a +5 run value, an .846 SLG, and a .472 wOBA. He also has strong numbers against the rest of Bradley's arsenal.
Considering the price and matchup, this feels like an ideal bounce-back spot for O'Hearn. Weather could be a factor, but I typically do not let that stop me. If the game is being played, there is a chance.
