New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Picks and Predictions: June 16, 2026
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Tue Jun 16, 2026, 10:26 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-170
8
+100u
+133
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
152
7
+105o
-135
We've got an American League clash in the Bronx on Tuesday night, as the AL Central-leading White Sox head to Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees. Let's dive into my favorite MLB pick for this bout between two starting pitchers who are absolutely humming right now!
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks.
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Insights
The game total in this one is set at 7.5 runs, which might feel a little awkward at first glance, given the typically potent Yankees offense and a first-place White Sox club that's been led by rookie sensation Munetaka Murakami. But in my opinion, there are several things trending toward the under here.
For starters, Murakami is still on the shelf, and that's a significant hit to the White Sox lineup. On the other side, Aaron Judge remains out for the Yankees. When you strip both teams of their single best offensive weapon, that's a big deal. I'm not sure exactly how many runs Vegas accounts for there, but there's no doubt some of those absences are already baked into this low number.
Both teams were also off on Monday, which matters more than people realize for a total. That means both bullpens are fully intact and well-rested. At the slightest inkling of trouble, either manager has dealer's choice to play the matchups, lean into analytics, and deploy whatever arm they want. Two rested, hot bullpens behind two teams missing their best bats is a recipe for a quiet scoreboard.
Matchup Information — Yankees vs. White Sox — June 16
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Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
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Date: Tuesday, June 16, 2026
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First Pitch: 7:05 PM ET
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Broadcast: YES Network / Chicago Sports Network
Yankees vs. White Sox Pitching Matchup
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Chicago White Sox (38-32): RHP Davis Martin (9-2, 2.41 ERA, 79 SO)
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New York Yankees (43-27): RHP Gerrit Cole (1-1, 2.45 ERA, 18 SO)
Yankees vs. White Sox Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of our friends at BetOnline:
Run Line
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Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-175)
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New York Yankees -1.5 (+153)
Moneyline
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Chicago White Sox +125
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New York Yankees -138
Total
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Over 7.5 (-110)
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Under 7.5 (-110)
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Picks
Will Jazz Chisholm be the spark plug the Yankees need tonight?
White Sox vs. Yankees Prediction: Under 7.5 Runs
Best Bet: White Sox/Yankees Under 7.5 (-110) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
The biggest reason I like the under here is the pitching matchup, and it's a good one on both sides.
Gerrit Cole has been absolutely dynamite since returning from the injured list. It's a small sample size, sure, but his 2.81 expected ERA backs up the 2.45 ERA he's posted. According to Baseball Savant, his chase rate sits in the 67th percentile. He's not exactly piling up whiffs, which is a slight concern, but he's doing a fantastic job of suppressing hard contact and barrels. He's historically been a fly-ball pitcher, which is the one thing that can get him into trouble in the heat, but he's looked so sharp since coming back that I'm betting he avoids the big damage.
On the other side, Davis Martin has quietly been one of the better stories in baseball. Who is Davis Martin? A guy sitting at 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA, that's who. His expected ERA is calling for a bit of regression, but it's still only slightly above league average per Baseball Savant — and more importantly, he generates a ton of chases and a ton of whiffs. That's critical here, because the Yankees have struggled mightily this season against starters who actually have some stuff. Martin fits that bill perfectly.
Meanwhile, since June 1, the White Sox rank 11th in weighted runs created plus against right-handed pitching, so they're in decent form. But the Yankees rank just 19th in wRC+ against righties over that same stretch.
So let's put it all together: two pitchers in excellent form, two teams missing their best offensive threat, two fully rested and dangerous bullpens, and a Yankees lineup that has shown it can be neutralized by quality stuff at times. I'll take the under 7.5 runs.
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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