Nationals vs. Braves: Odds & Predictions | May 15, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Thu May 15, 2025, 2:26 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Nationals vs. Braves: Matt Olson steps into Thursday's slate with one of the top hitter matchups on the board. His home trends are heating up, and the Braves slugger draws a dream spot against a struggling Nationals arm. All signs point to Olson setting the tone early.
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Last Month: 100-162-2 (+2.48u)
Last Week: 21-37 (+4.3u)
Nationals vs. Braves Odds
Will we see some Matt Olson magic this afternoon?
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Run Line
Nationals: +1.5 (-106)
Braves: -1.5 (-114)
Total
Over: 9 (-104)
Under: 9 (-116)
Moneyline
Nationals: +184
Braves: -205
Nationals vs Braves Best Bet
First game of the day, and Braves first baseman Matt Olson has my full attention. He enters today with the third-highest matchup rating on Batters-Box.com. Graded with an elite rating, Olson has incredible trends when labeled elite: he records at least one hit 66% of the time, goes over this prop 37% of the time, and hits a home run in 17% of his games. That is over a 146-game elite rating sample.
Now back at home, Olson's trends are even better—72% hit rate, over 1.5 total bases 41% of the time, and over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs in 60% of those games.
Today, Olson faces Nationals right-hander Trevor Williams, who comes in with the fourth-worst pitcher rating. He holds poor averages in hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, and strikeout percentage. The 33-year-old has a 5.88 ERA and 1.57 WHIP this season. On the road, that ERA jumps to 6.30, with opponents batting .349 against him.
Williams leans heavily on his slider, throwing it 40% of the time. It is his only pitch that grades slightly above league average—by a literal hair. The rest of his arsenal? Well below average, per FanGraphs. His average pitch value sits at -1.29.
With Olson playing his best baseball at home this year—batting .237 with a .792 OPS—and coming off a one-hit night following an 0-for-4 on Tuesday, I think he is a strong candidate to kick off the day on a high note.
Best Bet: Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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