Nationals vs Braves: Odds & Predictions | May 13, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Tue May 13, 2025, 2:02 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Nationals vs Braves: We are heading to Atlanta tonight where the weather is beautiful and the matchup is even better for Austin Riley. He comes in swinging a hot bat and gets a vulnerable arm in Mike Soroka, who struggles on the road and leans on hittable stuff. The numbers line up perfectly for Riley to make some noise at the plate.
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Last Month: 94-163-2 (-6.78u)
Last Week: 15-44 (-8.88u)
Nationals vs Braves Odds
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Runline
Nationals: +1.5 (-115)
Braves: -1.5 (-105)
Total
Over: 8.5 (+103)
Under: 8.5 (-123)
Moneyline
Nationals: +186
Braves: -207
Nationals vs Braves Best Bet
More fantastic weather is on deck in Atlanta, and Austin Riley's total bases prop is looking rather delectable. He enters today with the fourth-highest matchup rating in this game on Batters-Box.com. In 79 Elite-rated games, Riley records a hit 72% of the time, goes over this prop in 56%, and hits a home run 25% of the time. On the season, the third baseman is batting .283 with a sub-.800 OPS. He has recorded a hit in back-to-back games and will look to make it three straight tonight against Nationals starter Mike Soroka.
Soroka enters with a Poor pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com. He also holds a Poor average hitter matchup wOBA and ISO. Through just two starts this season, Soroka has a 7.20 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Last season, across 13 road starts, he posted a 5.04 ERA. The 27-year-old leans heavily on his fastball, throwing it nearly 50% of the time, and FanGraphs grades that pitch at -2.60. His best pitch is his slider, graded at 2.66.
Riley has crushed sliders this season—batting .327 with an .857 OPS and a 146 wRC+ against them. According to Baseball Savant, his expected batting average is .344, expected slugging .587, xwOBA .395, and his hard-hit rate against sliders sits at 61.9%.
With how well Riley matches up against Soroka's arsenal, it is hard to pass up on his total bases prop this evening.
Best Bet: Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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