MLB Picks and Predictions for July 11, 2026
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Sat Jul 11, 2026, 9:00 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We've got a nice slate of baseball on Saturday, and two plays are really standing out to me — one game total and one moneyline pick. Let's dive into my best MLB picks for July 11th and find some bangers!
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks.
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics MLB Picks
I'm fading the A's on the road again, and this time I'm attacking the game total. The Athletics visit Rate Field in Chicago for a 2:10 PM ET matchup, with Gage Jump and Erick Fedde set to toe the rubber.
White Sox vs. Athletics Pitching Matchup
- Athletics: LHP Gage Jump (3-3, 3.77 ERA, 41 SO)
- Chicago White Sox: RHP Erick Fedde (4-6, 4.34 ERA, 57 SO)
Best Bet: Athletics/White Sox Under 9.5 Runs (-125) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
I can't sugarcoat it — Fedde is a really bad starting pitcher right now. He ranks in just the 3rd percentile in whiff rate, 4th percentile in chase rate, and his expected ERA is all the way up at 4.71 per Baseball Savant. But the perfect remedy for a bad pitcher is a really bad offense once the splits come into play. Troy Melton and the Tigers were a big winner for us earlier this week with the A's on the road, and surprise — I'm fading the A's road bats again.
Since the beginning of June, the A's rank 29th in wRC+ and dead last in ISO away from the tiny confines of Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Look at their home splits, though, and they rank third in wRC+ and first in ISO, with the season-long numbers pretty comparable if you want a longer sample.
On top of that, they're still really banged up. Tyler Soderstrom remains out, and they lost Brent Rooker for the season. There's just such a lack of firepower; this team is completely flat on the road right now. I'm just hoping Fedde can get a little batted-ball luck while the A's continue to be lifeless.
As for the other side, Gage Jump takes the ball for the A's. The highly touted, exciting rookie is profiling as an average pitcher right now with a 4.05 expected ERA, but there are things I like about him. He hasn't been issuing many walks, doesn't give up many barrels, and he sits around league average in strikeout rate. I can live with that.
Meanwhile, the White Sox got a jolt with Munetaka Murakami returning to the lineup on Friday, but since the beginning of June they rank just 28th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching, own the sixth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws, and rank 25th in ISO. This one fits like a glove. Fedde is the biggest liability, but the A's are struggling enough that I really like the under.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Picks
I'm backing the Braves again as they visit Busch Stadium for a 7:15 PM ET matchup. Matthew Liberatore is scheduled to toe the rubber for St. Louis with Reynaldo Lopez on the other side.
Cardinals vs. Braves Pitching Matchup
- Atlanta Braves: RHP Reynaldo Lopez (4-1, 3.18 ERA, 51 SO)
- St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Matthew Liberatore (4-6, 5.34 ERA, 82 SO)
Best Bet: Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-115) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
Lopez hasn't been perfect. He's bounced in and out of the rotation, with the advanced numbers suggesting regression is coming eventually — that sparkling 3.18 ERA is a bit fraudulent. But much like Jump, Lopez doesn't give up barrels or hard contact, which is really helpful. This is more of a fade of Liberatore combined with a little backing of the Atlanta offense against him.
Liberatore carries an ERA over 5.00, and his advanced metrics say he's pretty much that bad — his expected ERA is right in line with it. He ranks in just the 9th percentile in expected batting average, gives up barrels, and he doesn't keep the ball on the ground. Additionally, he doesn't strike out many hitters either.
When you look at the season-long numbers and the splits, neither offense has crushed the opposite hand. Atlanta hasn't been great against lefties, and St. Louis hasn't been great against right-handed pitching. But in the month of July, the Cardinals have been a tick worse than they've been overall against righties this season, ranking just 24th in wRC+ and 27th in on-base percentage.
These are pretty good odds all things considered, and I'm just that much more of a non-believer in Liberatore than I am in Lopez right now. Give me the Braves.
Good luck on Saturday. Let's cash a couple of winners!
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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