MLB Picks and Predictions for July 28, 2026
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Tue Jul 28, 2026, 2:20 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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There is already one baseball game in action as this is being written on Tuesday, as the Guardians and Reds were rained out yesterday and are making it up as we speak. However, there is still tons of action on tonight's MLB slate, so our experts had to dive in and find their favorite picks for tonight! Keep reading to see if you will tail or fade their selections.
- MLB YTD
- 63-46-1 (57.8%)
- +15.5u
- Average Odds -101
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Picks
Troy Melton has been incredible for the Tigers this season. Will he step up tonight against the Orioles?
Orioles vs. Tigers Pitching Matchup
- Baltimore Orioles: RHP Dean Kremer (1-3, 5.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP)
- Detroit Tigers: RHP Troy Melton (5-1, 1.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)
Best Bet: Tigers ML (-138) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Drinking nearly a dollar 40 of juice here tonight to back the Tigers to win at home. Sure they have lost three straight, but Troy Melton is on the mound, and I expect him to shove. He's rocking a 1.21 ERA through four starts in July, giving up just four total runs (three earned) in his last 22.1 innings. Taking it a step further, in his last six outings, Melton has allowed just five earned runs, going for at least five innings in each contest.
However the kicker is fading Dean Kremer tonight. He's made four starts this month since coming back from injury and things haven't gone his way. Kremer has a 6.19 ERA in three road starts this year, with a 5.57 ERA during the month of July. He has allowed six, two and four earned runs in his last three starts, and despite their bad bats, I can't imagine Detroit will need to score very many to take this game at home.
I looked at the Tigers Team Total Over 4.5 for (-125), but in the end I decided I wanted Melton on my side, as I see this being a low scoring, one sided game anyways.
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels MLB Picks
Peter Lambert has a 1.52 ERA during the month of July, giving up four earned runs in 23.2 innings
Astros vs. Angels Pitching Matchup
- Houston Astros: RHP Peter Lambert (8-5, 3.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
- Los Angeles Angels: LHP Reid Detmers (3-7, 4.05 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)
Best Bet: Astros ML (-106) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Back the Stros on the road with me tonight. Peter Lambert has been rock solid on the road this year where is ERA and WHIP both drop, plus he's been a stud this month. In four July starts, Lambert posts a 1.52 ERA, with just four earned runs in his last 23.2 innings. While he hasn't gotten the decision in either of his last two, Lambert has set his team up for success. Tonight he faces the Angels who are just 24-29 at home, and hitting a measly .229. I expect him to have a solid start.
As for the Angels pitching, Reid Detmers takes the mound, who I love to fade. He has been better in his last two outings, giving up just one earned run across 11.1 innings, but he doesn't get much run support. Plus, prior to his last two starts, Detmers has allowed five, five, two, and five earned runs since June 21.
Our BN Prediction Engine has the Astros fairly priced around -132 for this moneyline, so we are getting tons of value at the current odds offered.
Believe it or not, the Astros actually hit significantly better on the road than at home, watching their team batting average jump from .241 to .249. Give me Houston to win on the road tonight, adding another victory to their 6-1 record in their last eight games.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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