MLB Best Home Run Bets Today | April 29th
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Tue Apr 29, 2025, 12:51 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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MLB Best Home Run Bets: The weather is warming up, and so are the bats across the league. With matchups to exploit and trends aligning, today offers prime spots for long ball value. Let us dive into my favorite home run prop on the board.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today's slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
MLB Best Home Run Bets Today, April 29th
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Month: 96-134-4 (+10.6u)
Last week: 22-39-2 (+2.42u)
Yankees vs Orioles Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Jazz Chisholm Jr. Home Run (+480) odds via BetOnline
You like Jazz?
No, seriously. Do you like Jazz?
Today, your grandfather's favorite musical genre holds the third-highest hitter rating in the Yankees versus Orioles matchup. After an 0-for-3 night, Jazz Chisholm looks to bounce back against Orioles starter Kyle Gibson, who is making his first start of the season.
According to Batters-Box.com, Gibson carries poorly rated average hitter matchup marks in both wOBA and ISO. He is also allowing nearly 35% hard contact to opposing hitters.
Chisholm profiles very well against Gibson's pitch mix and has strong numbers across the board. Throughout his career, Gibson's arsenal has hovered around league average, and with this being his first outing of the season, the flashy Yankee could take advantage early. If he gets a mistake pitch, we might see some fireworks.
It has been over a week since the 27-year-old last left the yard. With five hits in his last seven games and seeing the ball well, Chisholm feels more than due.
Nationals vs Phillies Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+300) odds via BetOnline
Will we see some revenge against Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore this evening?
Am I going overboard betting on Kyle Schwarber three times in the last five days? Maybe—but there is consistent value in his props. For example, his hit prop today sits at -140; I threw 1.4 units on that and a half-unit on his over 1.5 total bases at +150. But when it comes to him going yard today, there is a bit more going into the play.
The Phillies face MacKenzie Gore for the second time this season. Their first meeting came on Opening Day in Washington, where Gore struck out 13, allowed one hit, and gave up no runs over six dominant innings. A month later, the Phillies should have revenge on their minds.
Gore relies on his fastball nearly 50% of the time, and I am always interested when a pitcher leans that heavily on heat. He enters today with the fifth-worst pitcher rating on the slate, along with poor average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, and hard contact metrics. The Nationals left-hander is allowing nearly 42% hard contact to opposing hitters.
Schwarber matches up extremely well with Gore's pitch mix, hitting .313 with a 1.151 OPS and 219 wRC+ against fastballs this season. He also owns an elite rating on Batters-Box.com, and in those elite spots, he hits a home run 22.4% of the time. Schwarber has not left the yard since April 18th—he is due.
It is a gorgeous day in Philadelphia: 78 degrees with the wind blowing out to right-center at Citizens Bank Park. If Schwarber barrels one up, I believe it is leaving the yard.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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