MLB Best Bets: Team Totals & Hit Parlays | March 28, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Fri Mar 28, 2025, 1:05 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Today's slate presents some great opportunities, with the Red Sox boasting the best lineup matchup against the worst-rated pitcher on Batters-Box.com and Shohei Ohtani in a prime spot to succeed. The data backs these plays, with strong hit rates, favorable matchup trends, and a struggling opposing pitcher. Let us break down the best bets and why the numbers are in our favor.
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2023 MLB Results: +96.0 Units
2024 MLB Results: +13.71 Units
Opening Day Best Bet Write Up: 2-0 (+1.16)
Everything is tracked on my Action.
Red Sox vs Rangers Best Bet
Can the Red Sox get on top of Jack Leiter's pitches?
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The Boston Red Sox go up against Rangers starter Jack Leiter, who has the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com pitcher ratings. The Red Sox lineup features two elite-rated hitters and holds the highest average hitter matchup rating on today's slate. On top of that, they have zero poorly rated hitters and no batters above the league ground ball rate.
A season ago, Boston ranked in the top 10 in first-five scoring, averaging 2.67 runs per first five innings. With improvements to the lineup and an extra year of development for the young guys, they should be able to push that number closer to three per first five this season. In nine games last year, Leiter posted an 8.83 ERA along with a 1.71 WHIP. He has not had the hottest spring, so hopefully, Boston can get on top of his pitches early and often.
Best Bet: Red Sox First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+120)
2-Leg Hit Parlay Best Bet
Will today be the day Rafael Devers records his first hit?
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One of the two Red Sox elite-rated hitters is Rafael Devers, who also ranks in the top three highest average hitter ratings today. When he has an elite rating, he records at least one hit 69.37% of the time across a 111-game sample size. After going hitless on Opening Day, I believe he will bounce back and get on base somehow later today.
Someone who had a great Opening Day was Shohei Ohtani, who went 2-for-4 with a home run (2). He enters today with the second-highest hitter rating. When he has an elite rating, he records a hit 75% of the time across a 146-game sample size. Not only does he have incredible hit trends, but he also has the highest home run percentage trend among players today. When he has an elite rating, the Dodgers slugger has a 33.56% chance of hitting one out of the park. Did I sprinkle on his home run today? Yes, I sprinkled on both hitters. Ohtani should face Jack Flaherty, who has the sixth-highest hard contact percentage among today's 18 starting pitchers.
At nearly plus money for two of the best hitters in the game to record a hit, this is a fantastic price. The trends point toward us having success—hopefully, the cards are in our favor.
Parlay: Rafael Devers + Shohei Ohtani (-109)
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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