MLB Best Bets for Monday, May 4: Can the Cubs Continue Crushing?

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Last Update: Mon May 04, 2026, 11:07 am ET

Read Time: 6 minutes

Monday's MLB slate is shaping up to be a good one. Our analyst shares his top picks on the diamond with his MLB best bets and plays.

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Chicago Cubs logo

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

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What's going on, everyone? A new week is here, and there's plenty of opportunity to start things off on the right foot on the diamond.

Three games stand out to me, and I'll break them down below with my MLB best bets for Monday, May 4.

MLB Best Bets for Monday, May 4

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs

One of the hottest teams in Major League Baseball, the Chicago Cubs, are starting a new series at the Friendly Confines against their division foe – the Cincinnati Reds.

The Cubbies have won five straight games, including a three-game home sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Over the past couple of weeks, the Northsiders have posted a 133 wRC+ (2nd), .831 OPS (4th) and .215 ISO (4th) against right-handed pitching.

The righty they'll face this evening is 23-year-old Chase Petty. He is the No. 7 prospect in the Reds' organization and is being called up to take the place of Brandon Williamson, who landed on the injured list with left shoulder fatigue.

Petty will be looking to redeem himself after his 2025 stint, when he appeared in three games (six innings) and posted a 19.50 ERA and 11.80 FIP. In his two starts, he allowed 13 runs on 13 hits, including three home runs and eight walks across 5.1 innings.

Now, he draws a matchup against a surging Cubs lineup with the wind blowing out to center field at 17 mph, which could turn into a nightmare scenario.

It could be a tough spot for Chicago's starter, Edward Cabrera, too, but at least we know he's a quality arm who can manage a game.

In his first season with the Cubs, Cabrera has made six starts, going 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA and a 3.71 FIP. He's limited home run damage with an 8% HR/FB rate and has kept his hard-hit rate below 40%.

The Reds rank first in ISO against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks, so Cabrera will need to be sharp tonight.

At the end of the day, Cabrera is clearly the more reliable arm, regardless of the conditions, and the Cubs are the hotter ball club. They should keep that rolling against an unknown commodity in Chase Petty at Wrigley Field, in what should be a beautiful night for baseball in front of the hometown faithful.

Bet: Cubs Run Line -1.5 (-110)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

Cam Schlittler

It's a sad day in the baseball world, as it was announced earlier today that longtime New York Yankees broadcaster John Sterling passed away at the age of 87.

It will certainly be a somber day around Yankee Stadium, as the Bronx Bombers look for their fourth straight win and a potential series sweep against the Orioles.

Taking the mound for the pinstripes is right-hander Cam Schlittler, who has been phenomenal this season. Through seven starts, he is 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA and a 1.54 FIP. Additionally, he's posted a 27.6% strikeout-to-walk ratio, a 0.74 WHIP, a 46% ground-ball rate and a 2.9% HR/FB rate.

There aren't many holes to poke in the 25-year-old's game right now, and I'm not too confident Baltimore will find any either.

As for the Orioles, they'll send righty Shane Baz to the bump. The 26-year-old is 1-2 through six starts, sporting a 4.50 ERA, but a more encouraging 4.11 expected ERA. Better days could be ahead, but with a .352 BABIP, a 12% K-BB rate and a 1.50 WHIP, paired with a matchup against one of the hottest offenses in baseball, it's hard to believe that turnaround starts tonight.

The Yankees have treated us well in this series, so let's keep riding the momentum until the wheels fall off.

Bet: Yankees Run Line -1.5 (-110)

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Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals

Yelich and the Brewers look to win this series in Miami

It's hard to believe the St. Louis Cardinals were a game away from sweeping the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, but that was the case this weekend at Busch Stadium.

The Cardinals are playing solid ball right now, which comes as a surprise to many after being pegged by experts as one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball entering the season.

We'll see if they can keep it going when they host division rival the Milwaukee Brewers tonight.

The Brew Crew will start right-hander Chad Patrick, whose 5.56 SIERA, 5.52 xFIP and 2.6% strikeout-to-walk ratio are masked by a 2.57 ERA.

The Cardinals rank top seven in wRC+, OPS and ISO against right-handed pitching over the past couple of weeks, and they appear to be in a strong spot tonight against Patrick, who looks destined for an implosion.

At the same time, St. Louis' starter Kyle Leahy doesn't garner much confidence either. gHe's 3-3 through six starts with a 5.52 ERA, 6.01 xERA and a 5.64 FIP. He also carries a .344 BABIP, a 24% HR/FB rate, a 1.67 WHIP, along with a hard-hit rate above 49% and a barrel rate north of 11%.

The wind is blowing out at 15 mph at Busch Stadium this evening and seems to be a perfect setting for runs. I'll look to capitalize on that by backing the total to go over 8.5.

Bet: Brewers/Cardinals Total Over 8.5 (-115)

MLB Best Bets

MLB Record: 42-34-1 (+4.45 units)

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Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

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